Kto i data

support group for QI sufferers

2018.02.27 02:45 thegreatbin support group for QI sufferers

All of us are here to share our "loot" from the QI.
[link]


2020.11.14 02:42 VeIikiy Master Cycle Zero Issue

I beat the Champion's Ballad DLC a while ago, and obtained the MCZ, but I recently bought another Switch and moved my save data from my old one to the new one. All of my data transferred as far as progression, except my MCZ isn't showing up in my runes. I went bac kto the SoR, and it doesn't give me the option to "redo" the DLC, so did i lose the MCZ somewhere? Or is it a bug? Help please!!
submitted by VeIikiy to Breath_of_the_Wild [link] [comments]


2020.11.13 19:50 Nahcep Kto tworzy prawo w Polsce, czyli dlaczego "wyrok" "TK" powinien zostać opublikowany

tl;dr zrzędzę o tym że fajnie by było jakby prawo w Polsce było procedowane tak, jak ustrojodawca sobie zażyczył, a nie jak widzimisię Panu Władzy
Jest sobie taka ustawa, o niepozornym tytule: o zmianie niektórych ustaw w związku z przeciwdziałaniem sytuacjom kryzysowym związanym z wystąpieniem COVID­­‑19. Ustawa ta w nocy z 27 na 28 października opuściła jelita parlamentu, po 38 głosowaniach nad poprawkami Senatu została przyjęta przez Sejm i skierowana do Prezydenta RP.
Tyle że nieco ponad 14 godzin później pojawiła się nowelizacja tejże - uzasadniona tym, że Państwo Posłowie... Pomylili się, i przyjęli poprawkę, którą mieli odrzucić, konkretniej poprawkę 27. Nic to, na chybcika i przy sporym podburzeniu (polecam wypowiedzi, nr 24) się ją przyjęło, i wysłało do Senatu oraz głowie państwa.
Tyle, że druk otrzymany przez Marszałka Senatu... Rozbiega się z tym, co powinien Sejm uchwalić - konkretnie art. 1 ust 2) ma inne brzmienie w zgłoszonym projekcie, co jest dziwne jeśli się zauważy że Sejm odrzucił wszystkie poprawki jego dotyczące. Komuś już tu powinna zapalić się lampka, ale hej - to nie koniec tej kolejki górskiej.
Otóż Prezydent zasiadł przed biurkiem we wtorek 3 listopada, mając przed sobą pierwotną ustawę. Przypominam, w poprzednią środę Sejm wysłał do niego uchwaloną nowelizację do niej, która oczekiwała na stanowisko Senatu. Wiedząc więc, że jest z nią spory problem, miał przed sobą wybór. Mógł poczekać - ustawę mu przedstawiono dzień wcześniej, więc konstytucyjny termin mijał 23 listopada, choć to niewiele by mu pomogło - najbliższe powiedzenie Senatu jest zaplanowane na 25 listopada, do tamtej pory nowelka utyka w komisji. Mógł ustawę zawetować - jest to wręcz podręcznikowy przykład, do czego służy prawo weta, ale do jej ponownego uchwalenia wymagana jest większość kwalifikowana. Mógł też zachować się jak stereotyp o sobie samym, i podpisać wybrakowaną ustawę - robiąc gigantyczne kuku rządowi, który musiałby taką ustawę wprowadzić w życie - i to prędko, bo kwestionowane przepisy "wchodzą w życie z dniem następującym po dniu ogłoszenia z mocą od dnia 5 września 2020 r."
Zero punktów dla tego, kto zgadnie co Prezydent zrobił
No więc mleko się rozlało, ustawę podpisano i zarządzono jej publikację w Dzienniku Ustaw w poprzedni wtorek, więc powinienem móc ją tam znaleźć? Otóż mam z tym problem - powinna być gdzieś między poz. 1933 a 2015 (obecnie najnowszym), ale próżno szukać tam jakiejkolwiek ustawy. Otóż według Rządowego Centrum Legislacji, zajmującego się redakcją DzU, wpłynęła ona tam dopiero wczoraj, wraz z podpisaną dzień wcześniej inną ustawą. Tyle, że w jej przypadku najpóźniejsza data ogłoszenia jest ustalona na 17 listopada - w przypadku naszej ustawy covidowej to 2 grudnia. Przypadkowa omyłka? Nie wg rzecznika rządu.
A ile do tego że premier decyduje, które stanowiska władzy sądowniczej zasługują na publikację, niestety w większości przywykliśmy, to tu mamy kompletnie nową jakość - ot tak, decyzję o tym że prawidłowo uchwaloną i przyjętą ustawę po prostu się zignoruje, odroczy aż przestanie być niewygodna. I to robi ktoś, kto nie ma takiego uprawnienia - ani w Konstytucji, ani w żadnych ustawach (art. 3 ustawy o ogłaszaniu aktów normatywnych mówi wprost: "Akty normatywne ogłasza się niezwłocznie"!). Czy wypada w ogóle wspomnieć o art. 231 kk?
Ale znowu, rozbijamy się o to, że rządowi na to pozwolono - skoro wyroki wydane mogły oczekiwać na publikację ponad dwa lata, skoro z tego powodu nie ma wyciągnięto żadnych konsekwencji - ówczesna premier została wybrana na europosłankę, ignorujący prawo ustrojowe prezydent został wybrany ponownie, a grzebiący brzydko rząd utrzymał swoją samodzielną większość w Sejmie - to dlaczego sądzić, że społeczeństwo chce żyć w państwie prawa? Bo do tego sprowadza się cały problem - jeśli z punktu widzenia prawa losowa osoba może uznać, że jest sędzią TK, jeśli premier może bez obaw powiedzieć, że ustawy wchodzą w życie kiedy on sobie zażyczy - to czemu nie zedrzeć tej delikatnej osłony, czemu po prostu nie dać mu prawa dekretu? Nawet jeśli nie przewiduje tego Konstytucja, czy ktoś mu się przeciwstawi? W końcu nie żyjemy w państwie prawa, tylko w państwie siły - a, jak wiemy, monopol na przemoc ma tylko władza państwowa.
I tym sposobem docieramy do clickbaitu w nagłówku: od niektórych protestujących osób słyszałem, że 'wystarczy że rząd nie opublikuje wyroku' czy podobne wariacje. Nie moi drodzy, mówię im, jeśli uznajemy że był to wyrok to należy go opublikować, należy go zastosować, należy wymusić na parlamencie odpowiednie zmiany - nawet Konstytucji, jeśli trzeba. A jeśli to nie był wyrok, bo nie zebrał się pełen skład Trybunału oraz przewodnicząca składu nie miała prawa do tej pozycji - to należy te osoby pociągnąć do odpowiedzialności. Jedno albo drugie, albo to jest wyrok z wszelkimi jego konsekwencjami, albo jest to uzurpacja władzy państwowej.
Moja opinia? Nie wiem do czego jest Wam potrzebna, ale tytuł posta powinien dać odpowiedź.
submitted by Nahcep to Polska [link] [comments]


2020.11.03 20:05 interestingstuff6 CDC’s May.20th Virus Planning Models Produce Death Rate Estimates Far Lower Than What We Have Been Led to Believe by the Media

CDC’s May.20th Virus Planning Models Produce Death Rate Estimates Far Lower Than What We Have Been Led to Believe by the Media

https://preview.redd.it/gdrdpfltm2x51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=13e1c00b3f2d3f7ece47bd292c54a2dd7d2e2928
  • Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio:.... The number of symptomatic individuals who die of the disease among all individuals experiencing symptoms from the infection. This parameter is not necessarily equivalent to the number of reported deaths per reported cases, because many cases and deaths are never confirmed to be COVID-19, and there is a lag in time between when people are infected and when they die. This parameter reflects the existing standard of care and may be affected by the introduction of new therapeutics.”
Seasonal flu kills on average 0.1% of people who become infected according to the New York Times.
(New York Times) “On average, seasonal flu strains kill about 0.1 percent of people who become infected. The 1918 flu had an unusually high fatality rate, around 2 percent. Because it was so contagious, that flu killed tens of millions of people.” https://archive.is/5hm63#selection-671.0-678.0

Now let’s take a look at these newly released CDC estimates that were posted on their website on May 20th, 2020.
https://preview.redd.it/3lvq66o1n2x51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b5c3f49622ed410ec7c4372f60032245a51c25c3
Each column is separated based upon specific scenarios — but take a closer look.
Do you see those fatality rates?
Don’t they look eerily similar to the fatality rate for seasonal flu that was cited by the New York Times?
According to RT, seasonal flu kills 650-300 000 people globally per year…
“For example, tuberculosis kills well over one million people worldwide each year and as many as one-third of the world’s population may be infected with it – although for the vast majority of people, their immune systems will keep the disease in check. Similar numbers may be dying from malaria. AIDS-related illnesses killed well over half a million people in 2018. Seasonal influenza kills, according to one estimate, anything from just under 300,000 to nearly 650,000 people globally per year. And these death tolls are small compared to the biggest killers of all: heart disease, strokes, cancer and dementia”. Read more
Listed below are a series of key news articles that will help broaden your perspective about this coronavirus outbreak.

42 Percent of U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Have Occurred in Nursing Homes

https://freopp.org/the-covid-19-nursing-home-crisis-by-the-numbers-3a47433c3f70

Stanford University Study Concludes Confirmed Cases in Santa Clara 85 TIMES Higher than What is Currently Being Reported…”If our estimates of 48,000-81,000 infections represent the cumulative total on April 1, and we project deaths to April 22 (a 3 week lag from time of infection to death 22), we estimate about 100 deaths in the county. A hundred deaths out of 48,000-81,000 infections corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%.” ..

“These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.”
“Measuring fatality rates and projecting the number of deaths depend on estimates of the total number of infections. To date, in the absence of seroprevalence surveys, estimates of the fatality rate have relied on the number of confirmed cases multiplied by an estimated factor representing unknown or asymptomatic cases to arrive at the number of infections.3–6 However, the magnitude of that factor is highly uncertain.” Read more

An Official at the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment Announced on Friday that the State Will Begin Differentiating Between Dying With Coronavirus and Dying From Coronavirus…. The Gazette Reports

“In previous reporting, the state health department hasn’t distinguished the deaths of those who died from COVID-19 from those who died from other causes but tested positive for COVID-19, health officials said, and reported them together as COVID-19 deaths.” Read more

CDC Whistle Blower Alleges Coronavirus Death Rate Significantly Exaggerated..“There’s a difference in dying ‘from’ COVID-19 and dying ‘with’ COVID-19.”


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ER-5o1mivYg

Senator Dr. Scott Jensen: “Right now Medicare is determining that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital you get $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator you get $39,000, three times as much. Nobody can tell me after 35 years in the world of medicine that sometimes those kinds of things impact on what we do.”, The Spectator

https://thespectator.info/2020/04/09/hospitals-get-paid-more-to-list-patients-as-covid-19-and-three-times-as-much-if-the-patient-goes-on-ventilator-video/

Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford Says U.K. Lockdown Measures Unnecessary, Rival Models Show Death Rate Between 0.1% and 0.01%, Belfast Telegraph

According to the Belfast Telegraph, Professor Sunetra Gupta, professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford, has produced rival models showing an implied death rate that is far lower than the 1.4% worst-case scenario modelling provided by Imperial College London….Read more

Nobel Prize Winning Biologist Michael Levitt Believes Lockdowns Completely Useless, Saved No Lives, NY Post

“I think lockdown saved no lives. I think it may have cost lives,” Read more

https://preview.redd.it/o7cvgye1o2x51.png?width=1208&format=png&auto=webp&s=4bf4ca545e6cfbf4cd9b6b6942b7ecaaba98cd50

Army’s Seattle Field Hospital Closes After 3 Days Without Treating a Single Patient, Military.com

“The hastily built field hospital set up by the Army in Seattle’s pro football stadium is shutting down without ever seeing a patient, so the service can shift resources where they’re more urgently needed, Washington state Gov. Jay Inslee said.” —->Read more

Twitter Censors Brazilian President — Glenn Greenwald Believes it’s the First Time Twitter has Removed a Tweet by a National Leader, RT

(RT) — “In an unprecedented move, Twitter has yanked two posts by Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, in which he took aim at coronavirus lockdowns as part of his controversial campaign to avoid a shutdown of the economy.” Read more

(Mar 19, 2020) Italian Doctor Says Coronavirus Nothing like the Flu, More like ‘Very Severe Pneumonia’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_J60fQr0GWo

U.S Government Collaborating With Big Tech to Utilize Phone Data for the Purpose of Combating Coronavirus, Seattle Times

“The U.S. government is in active talks with Facebook, Google and a wide array of tech companies and health experts about how they can use location data gleaned from Americans’ phones to combat the novel coronavirus, including tracking whether people are keeping one another at safe distances to stem the outbreak.” Read more

Bill Ackman: Shut Down the Country, Send Everybody Home for Spring Break, and the Stock Market Will Soar

https://archive.is/8R980

(March.7th) “Best-Case Scenario 15M Dead, $2.4T GDP Hit”, Australian National University

(Newsmax) “The highest-end prediction, using the Spanish flu from 1918 to 1920 that killed 17 million and cost GDP $50 million, projects 68 million dead and a GDP hit of $9 trillion, per the study”. Read more

(February 11, 2020) Asia Futures Remain Bullish; Wall Street Again Shrugs off Growing Disease Outbreak, Even Though Three of the Largest Cities in the World Were Recently Put on Lock Down, CNBC

https://archive.is/MuHtM#selection-1551.0-1555.61
submitted by interestingstuff6 to conspiracy [link] [comments]


2020.10.23 10:33 Logiman43 How PIS destroyed Poland.

EDIT: This post is in an article format with pictures and graphs here
I can't be silent anymore. In 2018, out of 1076 abortions in Poland, 1 was because of rape, 25 because it was dangerous for the woman's life and 1050 because of an unhealthy fetus. It means that PIS just totally banned abortion in Poland
Too few Europeans are aware of the depth of this crisis. The current Polish government is destroying the country from inside-out with its nepotism, religious zeal, communistic tactics, social programs and funding verge organizations (or trolls). It breaks every single law, making unconstitutional laws since 2015 and destroying the court of law. How Poland is pushing EU into crisis - rise of populism. The video is 2 years old and now it's worst
PIS staffed every single judicial court with its own people (ending the impartiality of judges). The very aggressive social 500+ program increased the job inactivity of Poles to 48% (48% of 15+ Polish citizens are NEET. Unemployment is at 5-6%). The Job vacancies in Poland are at the lowest level in EU. The corruption and nepotism is rampant, more than 1000 family members and friends are in public companies or in different Ministries. Polish PIS high ranking politicians are also making money together with pimps and mafia (see scandals down there). They are also giving millions of euros from public money to the Catholic Church. They are paying trolls to spew hate on Facebook, via Whatsapp and on the web. Some of them are hiding and not prosecuting pedophiles in the Catholic Church. Poland has almost the lowest innovation in EU. In 15 indexes tracking freedom and democracy in Europe Poland went from an average position of 12 out of 28 in 2010 to 23 out of 28 in 2019. I mean, not to diminish Trump’s “awesomeness” but imagine if the WHOLE republican party in the US was Trump-like. Shady deals, family in the govt, creating discord, staffing courts with their own judges. I’m just mortified.
For further reading I recommend: Sadurski, Wojciech. "Poland's Constitutional Breakdown", Oxford University Press, 2019.
Acronyms and main characters:

PiS changes electoral rules in an unconstitutional move. Presidential "elections" 2020 are the Biggest legal blunder of the year

Poland Is Showing the World How Not to Run a Pandemic Election. The upcoming Polish election is shaping up to be a farce. Washington should learn from Warsaw’s mistakes before November.
Why Poland’s “ghost election” sends a warning about its democracy
Wikipedia about this blunder

Destruction of the rule of law.

Some of the passages below are taken from this pdf
No member state in the history of the EU has ever gone as far in subjugating its courts to executive control as the current Polish government. The Polish case has become a test whether it is possible to create a Soviet-style justice system in an EU member state; a system where the control of courts, prosecutors and judges lies with the executive and a single party.
Across Europe, national courts recognise the judgements of courts in other member states, whether these involve commercial law, the European arrest warrant or child custody. Judges must assume that courts across the EU operate according to common values and principles set out in the European Union Treaty and in its Charter of Fundamental Rights. Once judges across the EU have reason to doubt whether courts in any member state provide effective judicial protection, the legal order on which the EU rests collapses.
Freedom house - How PIS captured Poland’s Courts

Constitutional Tribunal changes

It all began with the constitutional crisis four years ago. Constitutional crisis and the destruction of the rule of law In 2015, parliament changed the law on the Constitutional Tribunal, which rules on the constitutionality of legislation. The changes allowed them to annul the nominations of three judges made by the previous parliament and appoint their own. It shortened the terms of the tribunal's president and vice-president from nine to three years. The tribunal ruled the move unconstitutional in an open rebellion, but the dispute remains unresolved. Julia Przylebska - was illegally named the president of the Tribunal court by the president. And now Kaczynski, the PM have meetings at her house. Nice separation of power
There's too much to describe. For further info please visit the link. It is an amazing summary of the whole ordeal. timeline

Supreme Court changes

The European Commission, the EU's executive arm, said one of the most controversial reforms was to do with the Supreme court, which, among other duties, is responsible for confirming election results. The idea was to lower the age of retirement for Supreme Court justices from 70 to 65, but allow the Polish president to grant a five-year extension to whomever they deemed worthy. In 2019, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) — the EU's highest court —ruled this was illegal, after an interim decision ordered 20 already-sacked judges be reinstated. Of course, PIS chose 2 new Constitutional judges, A politician Pawlowicz with communistic past and Piotrowicz, also a politician and a prosecutor that was an active communist during the 80 that prosecuted Solidarnosc. Both of them are above 65 years old.

Ordinary court judges

There were also moves to try a similar tactic in the general court system for judges and public prosecutors, lowering the age of retirement for women to 60 and for men to 65, down from the current 67. Under the reforms the justice minister, who is appointed by the ruling party, would have the power to extend a judge's term. The laws were somewhat adjusted after pressure from the European Commission, but in November 2019 the ECJ shot down these laws, too, citing gender discrimination and political influence over the judiciary.

Disciplinary measures for judges

Another PiS addition allowed judges to be investigated and sanctioned for their court rulings. The disciplinary hearings and procedures were to be carried out by judges selected via parliament. These reforms were criticized by the European Commission because "judges are not insulated from political control and thus judicial independence is violated." The commission brought legal action against Poland on this matter in October 2019.

National Council of the judiciary takeover

In 2017 PiS remodeled the National Council of the Judiciary, which selects candidates for appointment as judges by the President of the Republic. This allowed it, in the short term, to control appointments to the Supreme Court – including to a newly created Disciplinary Chamber, which hears disciplinary cases against judges, and to a new Extraordinary Appeals Chamber, which adjudicates on electoral issues. Over time PiS’ take-over of the National Judicial Council allows it to reshape the entirety of the judiciary. Fifteen of the 25 members of the National Council of the Judiciary were previously elected by judges themselves, as is common practice across Europe for such bodies. These fifteen judges are now elected by the majority in the Sejm, the lower chamber of the Polish parliament. The other ten members of the National Council of the Judiciary are: four members from the Sejm itself (all four members of PiS), two members from the Senate, one representative of the President of the Republic, the Minister of Justice, the president of the Supreme Court and the president of the Supreme Administrative Court. In total 23 of the 25 positions are directly appointed by political authorities.
After the election of the new KRS, a publication of the list with the names of judges declaring their support for specific candidates was refused. The Supreme Administrative Court ruled that those names must be disclosed. However, the Chancellery of the Sejm has yet to carry out the NSA’s ruling. The Constitutional Tribunal (TK) and the President of the Personal Data Protection Office have been roped into guarding the secret. KRS destruction

Muzzle bill

The muzzle bill passed Dec 2019, victimize judges questioning the legitimacy of the government’s legal appointments, saying it is unlawful to “show hostility to other authorities of the Republic of Poland and its constitutional organs or to critisize the basic principles of the Republic of Poland.”The bill also delegalise the preliminary questions to the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU). The bill also allows to fire judges ( which is unconstitutional according to the Constitution). In average Ziobro dismissed a judge every day and a half from its position of president of court source

One of the worse Covid19 laws in EU.

Trampling Fundamental freedoms using a single ordnance and Critiquing the President will land you a year in jail. report.
In the latest special Covid19 law (already 4th lol) PIS smuggled an article straight from a communistic playbook about prosecuting people that critique the president. The sentence can be up to a year. They also smuggled a harsher law for abortions. Can someone tell me HOW it is related to Covid19? source
More Ruleoflaw

Political scandals

Illegal presidential pardon

Illegal presidential pardon for CBA chief Kaminski In 2013, Law and Justice (PiS) MP Mariusz Kamiński – who served as head of the anti-corruption agency from 2006 and 2009 – was found guilty of overstepping his powers. He was sentenced to three years in prison and was banned from holding public office for ten years. Polish President Andrzej Duda pardoned Kamiński even though he was still appealing his sentence at the time. The case against Kamiński was then discontinued. A supreme court judge said that the president interfered in the legal process because Kamiński was proven neither innocent nor guilty when he was pardoned, making a future ruling redundant. The judge said that the president can pardon someone after any final appeal has been heard “because then he is not interfering with the judiciary”.

Merging the General Prosecutor with the political Minister of Justice

The general prosecutor role was merged with the minister of justice Ziobro. source. This handed Ziobro and his subordinates greatly expanded power to politically interfere with rank-and-file prosecutors, their decisions, and their freedoms of speech and association. Poland Is Purging Its Prosecutors
200+ public prosecutors that are loyal to the Minister of Justice Ziobro (from PIS) All of them got promotions (or someone from their family) or pay raises. another list

Destroying the military

The creation of a territorial defense unit- a civilian army led by the ministry of defense to control “the situation inside Poland”. In addition, there was a purge of generals. and killing multibillion deals with France. About 37 generals and 47 colonels left. Why? Because they had to answer to a 27-year old assistant to the Defense Minister, former pharmacy assistant without a university degree. The Rzeczpospolita daily newspaper reported that Misiewicz was given a top communications job with PGZ ( largest defense consortiums in Central Europe) that pays $12,500 a month, huge sum in a country where the average pre-tax wage is about $1,150 a month. source
PIS decides to overhaul 40-years old t-72 instead of investing in German tanks. Not enough ammunition, uniforms NVG and other gadget went to the above unit,
In 2015, the Defence minister Macierewicz raided the Nato center in Warsaw at 1am to take control of documents and place their man at the helm

The ministry of Justice is funding trolls to destroy judges

Ziobro-Piebiak paid Troll scandal The Onet news portal published a report alleging that Deputy Justice Minister Łukasz Piebiak “arranged and controlled” an online campaign against Judge Krystian Markiewicz, the head of Iustitia, a judicial organization critical of the government’s efforts to restructure the judicial system, as well as against other inconvenient judges. According to the Onet report, Piebiak operated and financed an online campaign by a woman called Emilia who allegedly sent over 2,000 letters and emails about Markiewicz to other judges as well as to pro-government right-wing media. The messages contained fabricated, semi-confirmed and gossipy details of the judge’s personal life. According to Onet, Emilia obtained Markiewicz’s personal address from Piebiak so she could send him one of the letters.

Taking over the state media

State media was taken over by PIS and is using mass propaganda and here Not only they are a propaganda tube but they also offend polish citizens ie – translation: defenders of pedophiles and alimonies-takers are the ones against judiciary reforms. They call every peaceful protest as a coup
The same can be said about the GUS – general statistical bureau. It is controlled by PIS and it is known to “change” metrics so every Inflation or unemployment metrics can’t be trusted.

LBGT-free zones and Xenophobia.

Fear against refugees and calls for xenophobia. A leaked draft of a new Polish migration policy discriminates against Muslims, ranks foreigners according to ethnicity and breaches human rights
My article Why the Polish government is against LGBT?
PIS is supporting LGBT free zones where a thrid of Poland is declared as LGBT-free. During the presidential elections in 2020 Gay “ideology” is worse than communism, says Duda - PIS president.

Destroying education and HealthCare.

PIS cancels the in vitro program Polish government program that covered most of the in vitro costs was immediately cut by the Law and Justice Party when it came to power in late 2015, even though Poland has one of the lowest birth rates in the EU. Catholic Church opposition to IVF is widely seen as one factor in the Polish government's decision.
PIS also increased the minimum wage at the beginning of 2020. It created a weird paradox where a teacher and a starting MD is earning less than the minimal wage because they get paid from public money and the minimal wage change is for the private sector. And PIS wants to ban sex ed by labeling teachers as gay activists and pedophiles. Critics say Poland’s governing Law and Justice Party is wrecking the education system for political gain — and students are suffering.

Environment?

Destruction of the oldest European forest in Poland by Minister of Environment Szyszko The Bialowieza Forest is a UNESCO World Heritage site that sprawls across the border between Poland and Belarus, occupying almost 580 square miles of woodland and providing home to rare European wood bison among others. At least 10,000 trees are thought to have been felled in Białowieża, since the Polish environment minister, Jan Szyzko tripled logging limits there in 2016. The EU’s highest court has ruled that Poland’s logging in the Unesco-protected Białowieża forest is illegal, potentially opening the door to multi-million euro fines.
“Our (water) resources are comparable to those of Egypt,” it said in the report bearing the ominous title: “Poland, European Desert”

Nepotism and colleagues in state-owned companies

PIS won the elections by wanting to fight nepotism. The most famous was “24yo Misiewicz, a former pharmacy assistant without a university degree was in the defense industry under Macierewicz. The apparent favoritism has raised ethics concerns in a party that won office promising to fight corruption.” source There is even a webpage listing more than 1000 cases of nepotism under PIS Pisiewicze
Latest data show 162M PLN to 84 PIS oligarchs and Colleagues

Illegal budget for 2017

The 2017 budget "was adopted" not in the Sejm assembly hall, but in a smaller room where the so-called parliamentary session was held immediately as a follow-up to the meeting of the parliamentary causus of PIS, where no reliable counting of vates was possible, and with many allegations taht the opposition MPs were not allowed in. [Constitutional Democracy in Crisis?, Oxfoord, 2018, p.268]

Ex-communists in PIS ranks. And PIS is very anti-left and anti-PRL.

They are accusing the opposition – PO - to consist mostly of ex-communists or communistic party members or collaborators. The issue is that most members of PO fought against the communism and spent months/years in prison in the ’80. On the other hand, the PIS party members scarcely fought for polish liberty and some of its party members are former communistic party members or communistic prosecutors like Piotrowicz! Some Polish TC judge are also ex-PRL members. Here is a list in polish of all current PIS party members who served as PRL members during the communistic era. So, PIS is fighting against itself. Another list with 20 names of ex-party members now in PIS

Funding the Catholic church with public money

PIS is very Pro-Catholic, most of their voters are devout Catholics. So it is no surprise that PIS is funding religious orgs from public money. Since Law and Justice came to power in 2015, Father Rydzyk’s businesses have received at least $55 million in subsidies from at least 10 ministries and state companies. His Radio Maryja station, which reaches millions and is often the sole source of information for many older voters in rural Poland, offers a daily diet of horror stories about a world without faith, where gay people control the political agenda, universities are corrupted by “neo-Marxists,” and the Roman Catholic Church is under mortal threat. Rydzyk Embroiled in Corruption Allegations
Hiding Pedophilia. Map of 259 victims of catholic pedophilia. When a documentary was released before recent local elections revealing devastating examples of how priests sexually abused children and how church officials covered it up, many in PIS saw it not as evidence of an institution that lost its way, but one that needed to be defended. Piotrowicz, the above communist prosecutor, dismissed in 2001 a case against a priest accused of raping six girls.
Polish PIS president Duda pardons a paedophile that raped his own daughter. He makes the pardon a week before elections

Smolensk commission

The so-called assassination of Kaczynski's twin president brother in Smolensk created 90M PLN of costs. PIS created a "cult" around his death and even created a special commission that would prove it was an assassination. Kaczynski was using it on every occasion Don't wipe your treacherous mugs with .... Ofc they didn’t prove anything and they buried the topic. Every 10th of every month for 3 years, PIS party leader Kaczynski was making a "show" commemorating his dead twin brother. He was using the police to secure his demonstration even if he has no lawful power (he is neither a president, neither the prime minister). New law expanding police surveillance and the police is getting raises after raises to keep them happy. The commemorations, the commission and the damages (paid only to the politicians’ families, not to the crew) amounted to 91M PLN.

The welfare revolution

PIS is also very pro-family. The party is giving away 500zl per month for every kid. In short, it has “bought” the elections. The polish economy is unable to sustain such an endeavor roots of populism. And it costs the economy 80B PLN between 2016 and 2019. The best part? Rate of births is negative for the last couple of years and inflation is still growing. According to the PIS Stats bureau it is 3.5% and growing. However, many journalists made their own baskets of normal good and services and the inflation is closer to 10%. Additionally there is a growing debt that PIS tries to hide by shifting some debt into other Funds. One of them is the “Solidarity fund” that is not counted in the overall polish GDP, that is to support people with disabilities will pay for the 13th and 14th pension of people 65+.

Funding propaganda and trolls

Computational Propaganda in Poland: Russian troll factories
PIS bought the Pegasus spyware to spy on its citizens In September 2018, private broadcaster TVN24 reported that Poland’s state audit body, NIK, was questioning an outlay of over 33 million zloty (€7.6 million euro) by the Justice Fund, a government fund to help victims of crime. According to TVN, the money went toward the purchase of a “new system to spy on telephones and computers, the most expensive system in the history of Polish secret services.” Reports that the covertly purchased system could be Pegasus — a top-performing spyware that is impossible to track — surfaced last week.
Polish troll farms promoting Duda and Kaczynski

Funding public TV stations

Polish public TV stations should be impartial and public. Not favoring any party nor government and give the same screen time to every party equally. Unfortunately, there was a purge of journalists the moment PIS won the election and the propaganda is stalin-like. Look at this graph how it changed. Polish TVP is the mouthpiece of the govt. In 2020 PIS voted to give an additional 2B pln per year for 5 years to public tv.
Public Main TV making fun of US ambassador by reading the tweet with a derogatory accent

Scandals

PIS has hundreds of scandals that each would destroy a modern government. They defrauded billions of PLN over the years, put 1000’s of family members in different state-owned companies. Below are listed the main sexual and financial scandals.
  1. Sex hotel of the head of the Audit office Marian Banaś , a Law and Justice (PiS) politician and recently appointed chief of Poland’s Supreme Audit Office has been heavily embroiled in a corruption scandal, another to hit the ruling party just weeks before the country votes in a parliamentary election. Mr Banaś served as finance minister from June to August this year, and is a key figure in the party. Mr Banaś concealed his possession of a tenement house in Krakow from his financial disclosures. This property was then revealed to have deep running connections with a local, criminally-run escort agency. He claimed that the house was given to him by an old friend whom he met in the Home Army, which he then renovated. In his disclosures, he claimed he would sell the house, which never happened. Banaś claims that this was due to the buyer’s inability to get a loan. Investigations have further revealed that Mr Banaś agreed to rent the property for 5000 zloty a month, 10,000 zloty lower than its estimated market value, according to Gazeta Wyborcza. Just as the scandal could not apparently get any worse for Mr Banaś, further investigation by journalist Bertold Kittel revealed criminal links. When Mr Kittel entered the property he found at the reception an infamous Krakow criminal known as one of the brothers K – Wiesław or Janusz, who control escort agencies in the region. While still under investigation, there have been suggestions of contact between the two.
  2. "Alleged" Pedophila and Sex trafficking scandal of House speaker Wirtualna Polska learned the contents of the message of CBA officer Wojciech J. to the prosecutor's office about the failure of the head of the CBA, Ernest Bejda. In the background is a lost record with a recording of one of the leading PiS politicians who should have sex with a minor Ukrainian girl lost. His name falls on the document. In the message, Wojciech J. refers to several reports that he was the head of the office in connection with the "unauthorized access to his armored cabinet during his absence" submitted. From this vault, a record should be lost in escort agencies from the Podkarpacie region. One of the leading PiS politicians should have sex with a young Ukrainian in the recording. The statement signed by lawyer Beata Bosak-Kruczek mentions the name of Sejm spokesman Marek Kuchciński.
  3. Health minister Szumowski alleged to have bought £1m of PPE from ski instructor friend during pandemic. And givng away £65m grants to companies run by brother public anger has exploded after Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza reported that Szumowski bought masks with fake certificates from a skiing instructor who is friends with his businessman brother, Marcin. Poland’s Health Ministry reportedly spent five million zloty (£1m) on 120,000 FFP-2 type face masks and 20,000 surgical masks that were later found not to meet safety standards, Politico says. The company that sold the masks was registered on the 30 of March and won the govt. contract on the same day. Critics have also questioned Szumowski’s previous dealings in government. Polish news network tvn24 reports that while serving as deputy science minister in 2016-17, he gave 300 million zloty (£60m) in grants from Poland’s National Centre for Research and Development (NCBR) to OncoArendi Therapeutics, a research company run by his brother. Another company in which Szumowski was a shareholder, Life Science Innovation (LSI), was reportedly given a 24 million zloty (£5m) NCBR grant just days after he took up the ministerial post.
  4. Same Health minister Szumowski bought 1.2 thousand ventilators for PLN 200 million from a company owned by an arms dealer, not a single device was delivered
contd.
submitted by Logiman43 to Polska [link] [comments]


2020.10.17 18:02 darthemofan There is no such thing as Power's "DHT Mutants", just patients who need abiraterone to lower their DHEA

Powers love to talk about "DHT mutants", for transwomen with a high DHT despite good or high doses of E, and sometimes proper AA treatment too, with either normal, low, or very low T ; for which he thinks the prevalence is like 1/30: /DrWillPowers/comments/jbbcbi/today_i_saw_the_worst_dht_mutant_i_think_ill_eveg8uyamt/

EDIT: Before you panic, a prevalence of 1/30 = 3/90 : so this concerns AT WORST 4% of people. You are 96% likely to be fine. Relax. This is not for you, but for the 4% that may have a clinical problems like hair loss or remasculinization AND whose blood levels show elevated DHT and possibly other adrenal compounds too AND all that happens despite proper treatment with efficient doses of anti androgens and estrogens. That's a lot of AND, so relax, and remember YOU DON'T NEED TO CHANGE YOUR ANTI ANDROGEN IF YOU ARE DOING FINE

His protocol is bicalutamide (AA) and finasteride or dutasteride (5AR inhibitor) to block T -> DHT conversion by the 5alpha reductase : /DrWillPowers/comments/jbbcbi/today_i_saw_the_worst_dht_mutant_i_think_ill_eve
He also worries about the conversion from P -> DHT by what he calls the "back door" pathway.
Like a broken clock being right twice a day, this is not fully incorrect - however, it is mostly wrong.
In this thread that I've just read, some people like BaldingSince15Lol properly mention that the adrenal metabolism is the cause, and that abiraterone is the answer, but they get ignored... so it's time to put the facts straight.

Fact 1: adrenal and gonadal androgens are about of the same importance

This aint me speaking but this tiny medical journal called Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/nrurol.2010.231
However, any hormonal therapeutic strategy must take into account the fact that two almost equivalent sources of androgens act in the prostate, namely testosterone of testicular origin, and the locally produced androgens testosterone and dihydrotestosterone (DHT) derived from dehydroepiandrosterone of adrenal origin
"Almost equivalent source" - squash one and the other remains
Does it remains equivalent under anti androgen therapy? No mam, because of upregulation of the androgen receptor:
This observation can be explained either by elevated levels of the androgen receptor, which can increase the response to low levels of androgens and also modify the response to antiandrogens; or by local biosynthesis of androgens
That was 10 years ago. We know now that's is both.

Fact 2: androgens can remain high even on AA, due to direct metabolism from DHEA-S

How is that possible? Because cells have the full enzymatic setup to create whatever hormones they think they need. From https://joe.bioscientifica.com/view/journals/joe/187/2/1870169.xml which you must absolutely read:
All the enzymes required to transform DHEA into androgens and/or estrogens are expressed in a cell-specific manner in a large series of peripheral target tissues, thus permitting all androgen-sensitive and estrogen-sensitive tissues to make locally and control the intracellular levels of sex steroids according to local needs.
In fact, plasma DHEA-S levels in adult men and women are 100–500 times higher than those of testosterone and 1000–10 000 times higher than those of estradiol, thus providing a large reservoir of substrate for conversion into androgens and/or estrogens in the peripheral intracrine tissues which naturally possess the enzymatic machinery necessary to transform DHEA into active sex steroids.
Read the whole article, it's worth it, and you'll see even skin cells have the cards to make DHT from DHEA.

Fact 3: animal studies don't matter much, because humans are a WAY different kind of animal

Unless you're a rat, don't talk about articles about rats, guinea pigs or IDK what.
I know people say all men are pigs, but again from https://joe.bioscientifica.com/view/journals/joe/187/2/1870169.xml they're more like very special primates:
It is thus remarkable that man, in addition to possessing very sophisticated endocrine and paracrine systems, has largely invested in sex steroid formation in peripheral tissues (Labrie et al. 1985, 1988, 1997a, Labrie 1991). In fact, while the ovaries and testes are the exclusive sources of androgens and estrogens in lower mammals, the situation is very different in man and higher primates, where active sex steroids are in large part or wholly synthethized locally in peripheral tissues, thus providing target tissues with the appropriate controls which adjust the formation and metabolism of sex steroids to local requirements
This situation of a high secretion rate of adrenal precursor sex steroids in men and women is thus completely different from all animal models used in the laboratory, namely rats, mice, guinea pigs and all others (except monkeys), where the secretion of sex steroids takes place exclusively in the gonads (Labrie et al. 1985, 1988, 1997a, Bélanger et al. 1989).
Except monkeys... so I guess I can make an exception for monkeys. And there sure seems to be a whole lot of monkey practicing medicine and giving us crazy prescriptions.

Fact 4: even after gonadectomy, androgen metabolites remain at 1/3 of normal, and tissue DHT at 70%

Remove the testes, and somehow, only 2/3 of the byproduct of androgens disapprear:
Although orchiectomy, estrogens or gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonists or antagonists (through blockade of secretion of bioactive LH) cause a 90–95% reduction in the concentration of circulating testosterone (Labrie et al. 1980, 1985, Waxman et al. 1983, Moghissi et al. 1984) (Fig. 4A), a much smaller effect is seen on the only parameter that directly reflects intra-tissular androgenic action, i.e. the intra-prostatic concentration of the potent androgen DHT. In fact, intra-prostatic DHT levels are reduced by only 50–70% following medical or surgical castration (Labrie et al. 1985, Bélanger et al. 1986) (Fig. 4A). Moreover, as illustrated in Fig. 4B, the plasma concentrations of the two main metabolites of androgens, namely ADT-G and 3α-diol-G, remain at 28% and 37% of control, respectively, after castration in adult men (Bélanger et al. 1986), thus reflecting the high levels of adrenal precursors converted into DHT in the prostate.
If after stopping your weekly supermarket trips, over 1/3 of the trash you make remains, I think you may be getting stuff by amazon prime or somethings.
And as you can read above, it's not just that, but DHT is a special case: it's maintained at 70% of the normal (even higher than what the 1/3 suggest).
Also, as know by a lot of people after SRS a remasculinization rebounds happens: adrenals are known to ramp up production of androgen post-op.

Fact 5: it's not just in the prostate. Lots of cell can do that:

Of course, we should extrapolate data from cancer patient with a pinch of salt- but it means it's physiologically possible, because cells have all the cards they need to do what the hell they damn want:
It is increasingly apparent that mammary cells possess complex regulatory mechanisms that allow for the strict control of the intracellular levels of both stimulatory and inhibitory sex steroids. For instance, our data show that DHT favors the degradation of E2 into E1, thus suggesting that the potent anti-proliferative activity of DHT in E2-stimulated ZR-75–1 human breast cancer cells is, at least partially, exerted on 17β-HSD activity (Adams 1985, Poulin et al. 1988, 1989, Couture et al. 1993). Conversely, we have found that estrogens cause a marked increase in the production of the glucuronidated androgen metabolites 3α-diol-G, 3β-diol-G and ADT-G in MCF-7 cells, thus decreasing the inhibitory androgenic activity (Roy et al. 1992). In fact, since glucuronidation is the predominant route of androgen inactivation, androgen-inactivating enzymes constitute an important site of regulation of breast cancer growth.
Also notice how it mentions DHT can increase estrone, one of Powers pet peeves...

Fact 6: DHEA is also responsible of 70% of tissue estrogens too:

DHEA can be made into androgens or estrogens. Before menopause, DHEA is responsible of 75% of tissue estrogens - that's a whole lot!!!
In women, the role of the adrenal precursors DHEA-S, DHEA and 4-dione in the peripheral formation of estrogens is even more important than the situation in men for androgens. In fact, in men, androgen secretion by the testes continues at a high level through life while, in women, estrogen secretion by the ovaries completely ceases at menopause, thus leaving the adrenals as the only source of sex steroids. In fact, the best estimate is that the intracrine formation of estrogens in peripheral tissues in women accounts for 75% of all estrogens before menopause, and close to 100% after menopause (Adams 1985, Labrie et al. 2003a). In addition to E2, another important but still largely unrecognized estrogen is androst-5-ene-3β,17β-diol (5-diol). This steroid of adrenal origin has in fact been shown to exert direct estrogenic effects in both normal and malignant estrogen-sensitive tissues at concentrations found in the circulation of normal adult women (Adams 1985, Poulin & Labrie 1986, Simard et al. 1988).

Fact 7: PCOS and endometriosis are due to this conversion of DHEA

DHEA is already known to cause some disease, when cells start to use their cards to do what they damn want. But you wouldn't call people with PCOS or endometriosis "aromatase mutants" right?
Even if their problems are caused by excess hormones made from DHEA:
It should also be noted that the importance of the intracrine formation of androgens and estrogens extends to non-malignant diseases such as acne, seborrhea, hirsutism and androgenic alopecia as well as to osteoporosis and vaginal atrophy (Cusan et al. 1994, Labrie et al. 1997b). Another example of the relevance of intracrinology in non-malignant diseases is endometriosis (Bulun et al. 2000). In this regard, it has recently been demonstrated that aromatase is expressed aberrantly in endometriosis, while this activity is not detectable in the normal endometrium. Furthermore, another abnormality in this disease is the deficient expression of type 2 17β-HSD, thus impairing the inactivation of E2 into E1. Consequently, the increased formation of E2 by aromatase coupled with the decreased inactivation of E2 by type 2 17β-HSD leads to increased stimulation of the endometrium and endometriosis
So why call people with too much DHT made from DHEA "DHT mutants" ???

Fact 8: There is direct metabolism from adrenal androgens to DHT, that goes into the bloodstream

There is also good evidence that the DHT formed in peripheral tissues is essentially metabolized locally before its appearance in the circulation (Horton & Lobo 1986, Horton 1992). Phase I DHT catabolites include androstanedione, ADT, epiandrosterone, 3α-diol and androstane-3β,17β-diol, which are formed by the action of a series of 3α/β-HSDs and 17β-HSD isoforms (Fig. 3) (Labrie et al. 2000a, Andersson 2001, Dufort et al. 2001, Luu-The 2001). However, most if not all of the androgen-target tissues express HSD isoforms that are capable of back converting the phase I metabolites into DHT, thus suggesting that a fine regulation of these enzymes is extremely important for controlling the concentration of DHT in androgen-target tissues.
"metabolized locally before its appearance in the circulation" says it all.

Fact 9: If you are a human and not a rat, stop wasting money on blood levels!!!

I keep repeating, blood levels are at best incomplete proxies. You don't care about high scores but clinical results
The classical concept of androgen and estrogen secretion in women assumed that all sex steroids had to be transported by the general circulation following secretion by the ovaries before reaching the target tissues. According to this classical concept, it was erroneously believed that the active steroids could be measured directly in the circulation, thus providing a potentially valid measure of the general exposure of the whole body to sex steroids.
Notice the ERRONEOUSLY. You can't get a good idea of active steroids just from circulating ones, unless you are not human:
In fact, this concept is valid only for animal species lower than primates but it does not apply to the human, especially in postmenopausal women where all estrogens and almost all androgens are made locally from DHEA
Unless proved otherwise (and then I will be the first to welcome our new rats overlords), we're all humans here, so let's cut down on bloodtests. It's only good if you're a doctor and need to CYA or play with WPATH pointless standards

But there may be some spooky effects at a distance

Contrary to the previous belief that the testes are responsible for 90–95% of total androgen production in men (as could be inferred from the 90–95% decrease in serum testosterone observed after castration), it is now well demonstrated that the prostatic tissue efficiently transforms the inactive steroid precursors DHEA-S, DHEA and 4-dione into the active androgens testosterone and DHT locally in peripheral tissues, including the prostate, without significant release of the active androgens in the circulation
In normal cases, the DHT is not released in the circulation. But Powers observations remain valid: in some cases , maybe 1/30, you have people under E2 and AA that show mysteriously high level of DHT. Why? IDK!
We shouldn't feel so smug about endocrinology. Our medical knowledge is a bit like in the middle ages: we have some general idea about stuff, but we are dead wrong in many cases. And we forget about a whole lot of things we knew before (more on that below)
I suggest we don't call these cases "DHT mutants" but go for the simpler explanation (Occam's razor): for some reasons, a significant release into the bloodstream happens: the DHT made in peripheral tissues finds its way.
At first glance, if you don't know about adrenal androgens or these numbers (especially the 70%), it seems to defy logic. Then you realize "no actually, it kinda makes sense". Nothing spooky - just a variation around the normal.
In the 1980s where estrogens were used to treat prostate cancer, they knew about the importance of adrenal androgens: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3883502/
The role of adrenal androgens as potential stimuli to the hormone-dependent clone of tumor cells is further supported by studies in which significant amounts of DHT were found in the prostates of patients in clinical relapse after surgical castration. There are reports indicating that both surgical and medical adrenalectomy produce subsequent remissions in about 30% of patients who failed after castration or estrogen. The rationale to suppress all sources of DHT, therefore, is clear
"Suppress all sources" ... and that's like 35 years ago!!!
But now it seems we've forgotten about adrenals, so Powers is like Christopher Columbus, rediscovering America after the Vikings and many others already had made their way...

Conclusion 1: we don't know shit

We don't have a clear full picture, but we know that androgen deprivation can lead to tissue level synthesis of DHT: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3607121
We don't really know why yet: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2667103/ :
Investigations into understanding the effects of DHEA on human prostate cancer progression have posed more questions than answers
It's not constant. It may happen... or not:
Alternatively no metabolism of DHEA may occur, resulting in no harmful consequences of high levels of DHEA in prostate tissues
So yeah, we don't know shit

Conclusion 2 : think about the front door first

Powers loves to talk about the "back-door pathway", where progesterone is used to make DHT, without T as an intermediate but with androstanedione as an intermediate.
But before we talk about the backdor, maybe we should focus on the front door: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6438375/
Mechanisms proposed for intra-tumoral intracrine steroidogenesis include: the front-door pathway, which uses DHEA and androstenedione (A4) as precursors to generate T that is further reduced to DHT by 5α-reductase (SRD5A)-1, -2, or -3; the back-door pathway, which is initiated by the SRD5A1 reduction of 17-hydroxyprogesterone to produce DHT through sequential intermediates androstenediol and androstanediol and therefore without T as an intermediate (Kamrath et al., 2012a,Kamrath et al., 2012b); and the second back-door pathway, which also metabolizes progesterone to produce DHT without T as an intermediate but with androstanedione as an intermidiate (Stuchbery et al., 2017,Mohler et al., 2011,Mostaghel, 2013,Fiandalo et al., 2014)
Even if it's likely it doesn't stop there:
Another pathway that converts A4 to produce 11-ketotestosterone (11KT) and 11-kto-5-dihydrotestosterone (11KD) (Pretorius et al., 2016,Storbeck et al., 2013,Pretorius et al., 2017) has emerged recently as a potentially important androgen metabolism pathway. In this newly established pathway, A4 is hydroxylated by cytochrome P450 11β-hydroxylase (CYP11B1) to 11β-hydroxyandrostenedione (11OH-A4), which is further metabolized to 11KT and 11KDHT. Since 11KT and 11KDHT were found to be potent AR agonists (Pretorius et al., 2016,Storbeck et al., 2013,Bloem et al., 2015), DHEAS, DHEA and A4 may contribute to the production of AR-stimulatory androgens in addition to T and DHT. The actual implementation of these pathways would depend on the expression of key enzymes in tumor tissue, the presence of the requisite substrates and co-factors, whether production of DHT can bypass T as an intermediate, and the changes in expression of enzymes and in the concentrations of substrates/co-factors in response to the specific type of ADT
So yeah... it depends on a bunch of shit we don't know

Conclusion 3: DHEA matters a whole lot

But we can already concentrate on the big target: DHEA and more importantly, DHEA-S :
Potential proximal precursors for intracrine production of T and DHT in humans and other primates include dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) and DHEA-sulfate (DHEAS) that are produced in the adrenal glands (Rainey et al., 2002). DHEAS is the predominant adrenal androgen, and the most abundant androgen in the circulation. Levels of circulating DHEAS and DHEA are in the range of 3.5 μM and 10 nM, respectively (Travis et al., 2007,Wurzel et al., 2007,Ryan et al., 2007). Further, the concentrations of DHEAS and DHEA remain in the μM and nM ranges after ADT (Snaterse et al., 2017). DHEA is metabolized to androstenedione (and further to androstanedione), or to androstenediol, all of which can be converted in a single step to T or DHT as part of the front door androgen metabolism pathway (Stuchbery et al., 2017,Fiandalo et al., 2014).
It is possible that conversion of the more abundant DHEAS to DHEA may provide intra-cellular concentrations of DHEA sufficient to drive DHT production. Consequently, DHEAS must be considered as a ubiquitously present potential substrate for T and DHT production after ADT due to its high abundance. However, the contribution of DHEAS to intracrine T and DHT production in CRPC cells is unknown. The uptake mechanism for DHEA to enter cancer cells is not clear, whereas, DHEAS is a known substrate for multiple uptake transporters including the solute carrier organic anion (SLCO) transporters (Roth et al., 2012,Obaidat et al., 2012,Cho et al., 2014). In addition, the expression in both prostate epithelial and PCa cells of STS that is required to mediate conversion of DHEAS to DHEA would support the potential of PCa cells to metabolize DHEAS. Therefore, it is essential that the role of DHEAS in intracrine T and DHT production be clarified, particularly in the post-ADT environment

Conclusion 4: there is upregulation of androgen receptors, even with bicalutamide

AR-mediated transcriptional activity in LAPC-4 and VCaP cells was stimulated by incubation with DHEAS (Fig 4A and B, and STX64 reversed AR stimulation by DHEAS. T at 1 nM, and DHEAS at 3.5 μM, both activated AR transactivation, with AR activation by the androgens/metabolites inhibited by the AR antagonist bicalutamide. Bicalutamide alone and STX64 alone did not have effect on AR activity in cells treated in the absence of T or DHEAS (data not shown).
This means that andrenal androgen results in more androgen receptors, which means any DHT made will have more of an effect, while bicalutamide does VERY LITTLE to help given its binding affinity compared to DHT that 10x stronger (EDIT: I shouldn't say bicalutamide "does shit to help", as it will have some small amount of binding to the androgen receptor, but it just can't compete). So yeah, the clinical scenario of a patient under E2 and AA yet with high DHT is totally plausible biologically.

Conclusion 5: DHEA-S is the likely front-door culprint

Both DHEA and DHEAS were effective substrates for DHT production only at concentrations in the μM range, the physiologic concentration of DHEAS, but not DHEA. The adrenal androgens were much less effective substrates at concentrations in the nM range, the physiologic concentration of DHEA. This finding confirmed a previous report that DHEA was not a substrate for intracrine DHT production in human PCa tissue (Fankhauser et al., 2014), but suggests that when there is sufficient DHEAS available, both are potential substrates. While DHEA is not available in the μM range physiologically, DHEAS is available in μM range in circulation and may be converted to DHEA at sufficient levels to raise the intracellular concentration of DHEA to biologically active levels (Rainey et al., 2002,Travis et al., 2007,Wurzel et al., 2007,Ryan et al., 2007). Due to the high circulation concentrations of DHEAS, although DHEA and DHEAS could both be converted to DHT when they were present at μM concentrations, DHEAS appears to be the preferred androgen between the two that is available to PCa cells at biologically active concentrations.
It's simple: reduce DHEAS to below the microM range, and there's won't be enough to make DHT

Conclusion 5: Hitting DHEA-S works

We've got 2 solution for that: one still in the workbench, STX64:
In the present study, the STS inhibitor STX64 blocked DHT production from DHEAS, diminished AR activity and inhibited growth stimulation by DHEAS. The results suggest that conversion of the highly available DHEAS to DHEA, thereby raising the effective intracellular concentration of DHEA, is required to produce bioactive levels of DHEA
And one already available, abiraterone:
In patients treated with castration or abiraterone, circulating levels of DHEAS remained in the μM range, whereas, circulating DHEA was diminished to concentrations below nM (Snaterse et al., 2017). Consequently, targeting the metabolic conversion of DHEAS to DHEA with STS inhibitors represent a logical adjuvant therapy in combination with ADT or abiraterone treatment
Abiraterone is used to treat CRPC and reduces effectively the serum DHEAS and DHEA to 0.14 - 0.4 μM and 0.08 – 2.7 nM, respectively (Snaterse et al., 2017,McKay et al., 2017,Attard et al., 2008,Taplin et al., 2014).
So why don't we stop talking about "DHT mutants"? This aint the Xmen, and Powers sure aint the professor on the wheelchair- he's got way too much hair (and muscle) for that lolol
There's just us stuck in the equivalent of the middle ages, and not realizing we've got (imperfect) solutions like abiraterone. As imperfect as they may be, they can help people, and that's the only thing that should matter.
Make no mistake people - just like endos feeding you 100mg of cypro, causing prolactinoma, then blaming it on the E2 /DrWillPowers/comments/ja5w7q/lethargic_trash_trans_care_100mg_cypro/ nobody cares about you.
Some people are a little more curious, like Powers, but they often seem to miss the big picture, developping wonky theories instead. You depend on them at your own risk, because they have no skin in the game besides some intellectual curiosity.
Instead, become your own best reference. Study. Knowledge is not just half the battle - it is your only protection in the middle ages we live in. Because ultimately, the only person who'll have support the incompetence of medical professionals will be you and your sorry ass.
You may end up like the lonely BaldingSince15Lol that in the Powers thread was the only person to know about DHEA and abiraterone... certainly due to having some skin in the game.
Unfortunately, there's no other way. We have an imperfect litterature, and as much as people like the MTFHRT crew wants to squeeze it into litterature reviews, when there's no data out there, it aint gonna help. You've got to make some data somehow, like by self experimenting.
You can decide to wait and hope someone somewhere will do some research to cover your rare and unique case, or you can take the problem into your own hands. Sure, it can be like playing with fire.
But again, I've got bad news for you: nobody cares about you.
Sure, here we care a lil bit, but you can't depend on us, if only because we're all humans and eventually get tired. Someday will just throw our hands up in the air, and start doing different things. I know I will, as nobody seems to be able to listen...
submitted by darthemofan to estrogel [link] [comments]


2020.09.25 16:35 spacej3di Morning Market Synopsis - Friday, Sept. 25, 2020

US equities mostly higher: Dow +0.05%, S&P 500 +0.18%, Nasdaq +0.66%, Russell 2000 +0.85%
Notable Gainers:
Notable Decliners:
09:28:32 AM CDT on 25 Sep '20
submitted by spacej3di to stocks [link] [comments]


2020.09.24 19:53 zenon1410 REMEDY FNP UNIVERSITY OF WARSAW 3/2016

Z annałów polskiey biologyi
Jeszcze nie otrząsnęliśmy się dobrze z nadejścia złowrogiego wirusa, a już polską naukę zelektryzowały cudowne wieści: szykuje się Nagroda Nobla z biologii dla Polki. Polka na krótkiej liście do Nagrody Nobla! Na to czekaliśmy z napięciem wszak od dawna, w naukach eksperymentalnych ostatni taki przypadek miał miejsce ponad 100 lat temu… Krzepiące wieści do Ministerstwa Nauki i Szkolnictwa Wyższego, wówczas jeszcze pod komendą niezastąpionego ministra Gowina, dostarczył niejaki Marcin N. Nie po to jest światło by pod korcem stało. Dlatego też wkrótce w MNiSW pojawiła się sama przyszła Noblistka i uprzejmie poprosiła o – bagatelka – 3 miliony złotych na „pierwsze trzy miesiące” działania nowego Instytutu PAN, którym miałaby pokierować, „a potem się zobaczy”. Zaaferowani i podnieceni, urzędnicy ministerstwa dyskretnie wykonali telefony do kierownictwa najważniejszych instytutów biologii i biochemii w kraju, jednak wieść okazała się wypisz wymaluj jak z sowieckiego żartu. Do radia Erewań dzwoni podniecony słuchacz i pyta: Czy to prawda, droga redakcjo, co ostatnio ludzie gadają, że w Moskwie, na Placu Czerwonym, rozdają za darmo ludowi pracującemu samochody? Radio milczy. Jednak po godzinnym napięciu, w eter poniosła się odpowiedz redakcji. Że owszem, wiadomość jest prawdziwa, ale z pewnymi drobnymi modyfikacjami. Nie w Moskwie, lecz w Leningradzie, nie na Placu Czerwonym, lecz w bocznej uliczce, nie samochody tylko rowery i nie rozdają tylko kradną. Tu podobnie, nie do Nagrody Nobla tylko tzw. polskiego Nobla (Nagrody FNP) i nie na krótkiej liście, tylko raczej dość długiej, skoro od tylu lat nie dostaje. Śmiech zatem podniósł się na mieście, szeptano sobie ta nowinkę i śmiano się we wszystkich Instytutach w Warszawie, chichotano w Krakowie, ryczano we Wrocławiu, trzymano się za brzuchy w Poznaniu i wszędzie tam, gdzie wieść o przyszłym Noblu dla Polki dotarła. Z jakiego zatem powodu Marcin N. poczynił przyszłej Noblistce taką uprzejmość anonsując Ją w Ministerstwie – zagadka to wielka. Uprzejmości oczywiście nigdy nie za wiele. Na mieście jednak takie są treście, iż pewne światło na ta sprawę może rzucać fakt, iż Noblistka przewodniczyła panelowi ministerialnemu rozdającemu w trybie konkursowym szmal na aparaturę, w którym to konkursie Marcin N., itd. itp. Mniejsza jednak o to, co ludzie gadają – nagrody Nobla, choćby i polskiego, z serca utalentowanej badaczce życzymy. Sytuację komplikuje jednak fakt, iż Nagrodę FNP otrzymują uczeni wybitni i o nieskazitelnej postawie etycznej. Tymczasem, jak ujawnił w dn. 16 lipca b.r. ustępujący Rektor UW, prof. Marcin Pałys, w oświadczeniu opublikowanym na stronie www Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego: „Komisja Etyki i Dobrych Praktyk Fundacji na rzecz Nauki Polskiej, rozpatrująca te sprawy, uznała, że prof. NN (…) naruszała zasady etyczne.” Na domiar złego, jak przyznał na piśmie Prezes zarządu FNP dn. 22 kwietnia b.r., spośród czterech rekomendacji Komisji Etycznej FNP mających być wdrożonych w ciągu jednego roku, Noblistka spełniła do owego dnia tylko jeden. Zgryzota to wielka i żal w niebiesiech, gdy na tak opornego grzesznika etyka napotyka… Dla zatwardziałych jednak Regulamin postępowania w Fundacji na rzecz Nauki Polskiej w sytuacji potencjalnego naruszenia zasad etycznych lub niestosowania dobrych praktyk w działalności naukowej ma rozwiązanie, gdyż przewiduje w skrajnych przypadkach możliwość wprowadzenia zakazu ubiegania się̨ danej osoby o środki FNP do 5 lat czyli w tym przypadku do 2024 r. W zaistniałej sytuacji przyznanie Noblistce jakiegokolwiek nowego projektu badawczego by nie wspomnieć o nagrodach – choćby pocieszenia – wymagałoby od FNP szczególnej dialektyki. Pozostawiłoby również (delikatnie rzecz ujmując) wątpliwości w środowisku naukowym co do wartości tej prestiżowej Nagrody. Dylematy te pozostawmy jednak tym, którzy będą się musieli gimnastykować by i wianuszka nie zgubić i Jasieńka nie stracić…
Tymczasem Nowy Instytut PAN powstawał z wielką werwą. W piśmie do FNP z dn. 25 czerwca Noblistka zadeklarowała chęć przeniesienia swego flagowego projektu z Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego do rzeczonego Instytutu. Jakim cudem Noblistka wiedziała w dniu 25 czerwca o powstaniu Instytutu, skoro dopiero w dniu 27 lipca zarządzono głosowanie Wydziału II PAN w sprawie opinii Wydziału dotyczącej utworzenia Międzynarodowego Instytutu Mechanizmów i Maszyn Molekularnych Polskiej Akademii Nauk? Zagadka to niewyjaśniona, choć rzuca pewne światło na sposób, w jaki w polskiej nauce podejmowane są kluczowe ustalenia. Co znamienne, na dziewięćdziesiąt osób uprawnionych do głosowania zagłosowała niecała połowa (czterdzieści cztery), co obrazuje entuzjazm środowiska polskich biologów w kwestii powołania Instytutu. Na domiar złego, w czasie ekspresowo krótkiej dyskusji nad projektem Prezes PAN uprzejmym milczeniem zbył pytanie czy zostanie zorganizowany konkurs na stanowiska Dyrektora owego Instytutu. Wymagałaby tego ustawa o PAN. Jak tu jednak organizować konkurs, gdy wiadomo, że Instytutem pokieruje Noblistka? I tak źle, i tak niedobrze. Nasza młodą demokrację trapią, jak widać, rozmaite przykre konwulsje i to nie tylko u prostego ludu, który głosuje z frekwencją niemal 70%, ale i u profesorskiej braci. Nie roztrząsajmy jednak przywar naszego środowiska, lecz współradujmy się w PANu; otóż 10 sierpnia b.r. podjęto uchwałę nr 1/2020 Wydziału II Nauk Biologicznych i Rolniczych PAN! Popieramy Nowy Instytut! Zielone światło dla Prezydium PAN, by go utworzyć! Jest wreszcie dokąd przenieść cud-projekt z Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego! Wspominał o tym planowanym przeniesieniu z dniem 31.08 b.r. sam Prezes Zarządu FNP w piśmie z dnia 22 kwietnia! I data kwietniowa wyprzedza uchwałę PAN o dobre trzy miesiące, ale najważniejsza przecież zgoda, zgoda między chrześcijany…!
Jednakowoż… na tym świecie pełnym złości nigdy nie dość przezorności. Otóż z trudnych do rozumienia powodów Noblistka znarowiła się, że do pałacyku PAN w Jabłonnej to Ona emigrować nie chce, a i pieniędzy z MNiSW w takim razie nie potrzebuje. To znaczy chce przenieść projekt do PAN, ale równocześnie woli zostać na Uniwersytecie Warszawskim. Ten kolejny już jak widzimy dysonans poznawczy roztrząsać należy z wielką uwagą. By jednak podsumować sytuację na koniec sierpnia: stronom umowy nie udało się porozumieć co do warunków przeniesienia projektu do PAN i w konsekwencji złowrogi rektor Pałys wypowiedział z ostatnim dniem swego urzędowania, t.j. 31.08, umowę o realizację projektu na Uniwersytecie Warszawskim. Piekło i szatani! A już było tak pięknie! Na szczęście, jak chodzą słuchy, dobrotliwy rektor Nowak chciałby zawrócić wodę w młyńskim kole i przywrócić funkcjonowanie projektu na Uniwersytecie Warszawskim w tej czy innej formie. Ma do tego chyba nie lada specjalistów od prawa administracyjnego, skoro sam Pan Prezes Zarządu FNP w liście z 30.08 b.r przyznał na piśmie, iż Jego prawnicy twierdzą, że wypowiedzenie umowy przez UW w stosunku do FNP jest skuteczne. Och! Z obfitości serca usta mówią, ale po raz kolejny mamy problem dialektyczny! Jak tu projekt skutecznie rozwiązany przywrócić bez nieprzyjemnego uczucia czkawki i bez narażania się na wizyty instytucji nadzorujących działalność wyższych uczelni oraz samej Fundacji? A może jednak projekt przenieść, choć już jest zamknięty? Nieutulony w żalu PAN miał mieć przecież piękny Nowy Instytut – i co z tym dobrodziejstwem teraz zrobi…? Kto nim pokieruje, kto? Nieszczęścia jednak chodzą parami. Fundacja, ze względu na skuteczne, ich zdaniem, wypowiedzenie umowy od pierwszego września uważa, że wszystkie koszty cud-projektu po tej dacie nie są kwalifikowane. Stwarza to ryzykowaną sytuację dla Uniwersytetu realizowania projektu za pieniądze UW. Czy istotnie dobrotliwy rektor Nowak chciałby na sam początek urzędowania zafundować Uniwersytetowi rachuneczek na 25 mln zł…? I kolejnych kilkadziesiąt milionów złotych w pięcioletnim okresie trwałości projektu? I jakie będzie miało to skutki dla popularności samego dobrotliwego Rektora Nowaka? Czas oczywiście to pokaże.
submitted by zenon1410 to u/zenon1410 [link] [comments]


2020.09.05 17:30 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 7th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 7th, 2020.

The stock market shakeout is likely not over yet, even with Friday’s comeback - (Source)

The tech wreck is probably not over, despite Friday’s market comeback.
Analysts expect the shakeout in stocks to continue after the long Labor Day weekend, especially in technology names and the Nasdaq, areas of the market that notched the sharpest gains.
After August’s 7% gain in the S&P 500, stocks started September strong, and then just as quickly rolled over. The Nasdaq lost 5% Thursday and was down sharply Friday but pared losses to decline 1.5%. The S&P 500 was down about 2.3% for the week, even after a 3.5% loss Thursday.
“I think this is a good wake-up call and a reminder that there are risks out there,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “In August, we did take a little bit off the table.”
Analysts expect the week ahead to be busy, with holidays ending and more market pros back at their desks. There is some economic data, most importantly Friday’s consumer price index. The reading on consumer inflation is expected to show little change in core inflation with forecasts for a gain of just 0.2% in August, or 1.6% year over year.

Froth blowing off

The stock sell-off came as market pros were becoming increasingly wary of froth in the market, particularly in tech and momentum names. On Friday, it was revealed that SoftBank was behind billions in large options bets on individual tech stocks, like Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla. News reports said the trades were made over the past month, and SoftBank had been building unusually large positions in call options, or those that bet the prices of underlying stocks would rise.
One analyst said the fact that SoftBank was “gunning the market” makes him worry that there is more selling to come in Nasdaq names. As SoftBank bought call options, the sellers had to buy stocks, conceivably driving up prices in a trading feedback loop.
“It’s just a trip to the casino,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “If they’re supposed to be an investment company taking a long-term horizon, then trying to juice your short-term return through options, you’ve turned into a hedge fund.”
JPMorgan strategists said they expect the market to recover gradually, but there are still presidential election uncertainties looming in the next couple of months.
“The significant reduction in previously extreme long positions in Nasdaq by momentum traders should allow the equity market to recover over the coming weeks, as happened after the June 11th correction,” noted JPMorgan analysts. “But a repeat of the strong gains seen during July and August is less likely over the next two months.”
Grohowski said there could be more selling in the tech and internet companies, or those that were viewed did well as workers stayed home and the economy was shutdown. “It’s not the start of a big lasting correction, but a forewarning the next couple of weeks and months are going to be choppy. I think it’s going to be a sideways kind of market,” Grohowski said. He added the market could be choppy in the week ahead.
“We’re a little more cautious, not to mention the market is trading at 23 times our earnings estimates for 2021,” said Grohowski. He said the fact there is about $4.5 trillion in money market funds is a bullish signm since that money could find its way into the stock market.
Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said the S&P 500 could dip to its 200-day moving average, or 3,092, before rebounding, which would be about a 15% move in total.
“I don’t think the sell-off is over. Nasdaq is up 83%s since March 23, the S&P is up 63%,” said Emanuel.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Small Caps Best Day After Labor Day

In the last 21 years, only Russell 2000 has registered an average gain of 0.16% on the Tuesday after the long Labor Day weekend. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have struggled with negative average performance. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been up five of the last eight years, but DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all have fallen for the last three years on Tuesday. On Wednesday the market’s performance has been varied. DJIA has performed the best, up 76.2% of the time with an average gain of 0.25%. S&P 500 is worst, up only 42.9% of the time with an average gain of 0.13%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Big August: Bullish or Bearish?

Big August 2020 logged the 4th biggest August percent gain for the S&P 500 since 1949 and the 6th biggest since 1930. But, is this bullish or bearish for the market in the coming months? Hopefully the table below provides some perspective by comparing the previous Top 20 S&P 500 Augusts since 1949 to July, September, Q4 and the succeeding “Best Six Months” November-April.
Subsequent Septembers were down 15 of 20 years for an average loss of -1.0% (median loss of -0.7%). Q4 is positive with gains in 13 of the 20 years for an average gain of 1.0% (median gain of 3.0%). The following Best Six Months are more bullish, up 16 of the 20 years with an average gain of 7.6% (median gain of 8.5%).
Looking at just the 7 years that were preceded by big Julys shows some improvement for September but Q4s are worse, containing the largest Q4 losses. Back-to-back big Julys and big Augusts were followed by improved Best Six Months results, up in all 7 instances with a higher average and median gain and the top gain.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Analyzing the Jobs Report

The jobs market remains strong, as the August nonfarm payrolls came in at a solid 1.37 million jobs created, right in line with expectations. This was the fourth consecutive month of gains, up 10.6 million over this time frame. In March and April more than 22 million jobs were lost, so we still aren’t quite to half of the jobs recovered though.
This was the second consecutive month there was a very weak ADP private payrolls number ahead of the monthly jobs report, adding to the worries, but the actual nonfarm payroll number was once again quite solid. Don’t forget, just yesterday we saw initial jobless claims come in at 881,000, the lowest number since the week ending March 14, another improving employment number.
The big surprise in today’s report though was the unemployment rate fell to 8.4%, from 10.2% last month and an expected 9.8%. This was the lowest unemployment rate since 4.4% in March.
“This was an impressive report and once again showed the economy remained quite resilient,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But 8% unemployment is 8% unemployment, so let’s not get too excited, but we’ll still take this improving trend in the employment picture.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, even though more than 10 million jobs have been created in the past four months, the sad truth is we are still quite a long way from recovering all the jobs lost due to the pandemic. In fact, looking at previous cycles, it has taken years for all of the lost jobs to come back and this time doesn’t appear any different.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing to consider is could this solid number make it harder for Washington to agree on the next stimulus plan? We are watching this closely, but with the two sides still close to a trillion dollars apart, today’s report will likely do little to help the two sides come to a quick resolution.
Last, don’t forget that stocks gained more than 60% in less than six months, so some weakness would be perfectly normal. In fact, looking at the two previous strongest starts to a bull market ever (’82 and ’09) both saw some weakness right around now.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

3 Charts To Watch If You Are Bullish

The S&P 500 Index just closed the door on its best August since 1986, making new all-time highs along the way, while also closing up five months in a row.
First things first, make no mistake about it; this is a new bull market. That of course doesn’t mean it will last years like previous bull markets, but a nearly 57% gain in 5 months is what we’d classify as a bull market.
Here are all the bull markets going back to the Great Depression and where this one ranks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Now let’s dig into the 5 month win streak. It is quite rare for stocks to gain from April through August, as the summer months tend to be somewhat tricky. Yet, we found there were six other years that saw these 5 months all close higher and the rest of the year was higher five times, with some solid returns in there. In fact, the only year that was lower the rest of the year was 2018, mainly due to the Fed policy mistake in December 2018.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“What might surprise many investors is 5 month win streaks are actually incredibly bullish going forward,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, a year after a 5 month win streak has seen the S&P 500 higher 25 of the past 26 times.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 Index gained more than 35% during this 5 month win streak, the most ever. Yet, the future gains after 5 month win streaks is very impressive, higher 25 out of 26 times a year later. An object in motion tends to stay in motion and this sure seems to be the case here.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historic August Opens Door To Worst Month Of The Year

What a month August has been so far, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 7%, for the best August since 1984. Not to be outdone, this is the first time in history August saw two separate 6-day (or more) win streaks. Last, with one day to go, the S&P 500 has gained 16 days so far this month, for the most since 16 in April 2019. Meanwhile, it is the most up days for any August since 2003.
“Well, 2020 has laughed at many of these things, but be aware September is indeed the worst month of the year on average,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But what caught our attention was both September and October have a negative return during election years, with October the worst month of the year. Could investors get election jitters again in 2020?”
As show in the LPL Chart of the Day, September tends to be a weak month. In fact, it is the weakest month on average since 1950. Additionally, the last two times August was up more than 5% were 1986 and 2000; the S&P 500 fell 8.5% and 5.4% in September those years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Breaking things down by just an election year shows that August actually tends to be strong. That obviously played out this year, but now will the weakness we usually see in September and October play out?
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Finally, after today, the S&P 500 will be up 5 consecutive months. Looking at the other years that saw a similar summer rallies, there tended to be more strength the final 4 months of the year, with only the Federal Reserve policy mistake of December 2018 blemishing this impressive track record.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Yes, this record equity run is extremely stretched, but we would continue to use any pullbacks as an opportunity to add to longer-term core equity holdings, as the economy continues to come back quicker than most expected.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending September 4th, 2020

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.6.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $PTON
  • $WORK
  • $LULU
  • $CHWY
  • $KR
  • $ZS
  • $COUP
  • $LOVE
  • $AEO
  • $HQY
  • $GFN
  • $GME
  • $ORCL
  • $PLAY
  • $RH
  • $HDS
  • $UXIN
  • $MCFT
  • $FCEL
  • $CASY
  • $MEIP
  • $NAV
  • $REVG
  • $NSSC
  • $ABM
  • $SCWX
  • $PHR
  • $ALOT
  • $CVGW
  • $DSGX
  • $ZUMZ
  • $GIII
  • $AVAV
  • $BIOX
  • $BIGC
  • $LAKE
  • $LTRX
  • $BBCP
  • $VRNT
  • $FARM
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.7.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Monday 9.7.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Tuesday 9.8.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.8.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.9.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.9.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.10.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Thursday 9.10.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 9.11.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.11.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Peloton Interactive $80.63

Peloton Interactive (PTON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $566.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.13 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $500.00 million to $520.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 62.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 78.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 92.6% above its 200 day moving average of $41.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 11.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Slack Technologies, Inc. $29.07

Slack Technologies, Inc. (WORK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $208.33 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.04 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $206.00 million to $209.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.94% with revenue increasing by 43.70%. Short interest has increased by 93.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $27.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

lululemon athletica inc. $361.41

lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $832.92 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 41.67% with revenue decreasing by 5.71%. Short interest has decreased by 16.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.7% above its 200 day moving average of $260.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Chewy, Inc. $61.18

Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 42.17%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.3% above its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Kroger Co. $35.47

Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, September 11, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.50 per share on revenue of $29.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.64% with revenue increasing by 5.30%. Short interest has increased by 8.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $31.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,648 contracts of the $33.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Zscaler, Inc. $134.34

Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $118.41 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.02 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $117.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue increasing by 37.51%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 54.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 68.5% above its 200 day moving average of $79.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,017 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 17.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Coupa Software $285.81

Coupa Software (COUP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.14 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.06 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 24.91%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 34.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 41.3% above its 200 day moving average of $202.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 538 contracts of the $270.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lovesac Company $29.44

Lovesac Company (LOVE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $52.58 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 77.42% with revenue increasing by 9.21%. Short interest has decreased by 29.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 41.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.7% above its 200 day moving average of $16.85. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 20.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. $12.86

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $833.66 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.90% with revenue decreasing by 19.91%. Short interest has increased by 45.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.4% above its 200 day moving average of $11.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,605 contracts of the $11.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

HealthEquity, Inc. $58.47

HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.27 per share on revenue of $171.32 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.23 to $0.30 per share on revenue of $168.00 million to $173.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 97.78%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% below its 200 day moving average of $60.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming holiday-shortened trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead smallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]


2020.09.05 17:29 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 7th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 7th, 2020.

The stock market shakeout is likely not over yet, even with Friday’s comeback - (Source)

The tech wreck is probably not over, despite Friday’s market comeback.
Analysts expect the shakeout in stocks to continue after the long Labor Day weekend, especially in technology names and the Nasdaq, areas of the market that notched the sharpest gains.
After August’s 7% gain in the S&P 500, stocks started September strong, and then just as quickly rolled over. The Nasdaq lost 5% Thursday and was down sharply Friday but pared losses to decline 1.5%. The S&P 500 was down about 2.3% for the week, even after a 3.5% loss Thursday.
“I think this is a good wake-up call and a reminder that there are risks out there,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “In August, we did take a little bit off the table.”
Analysts expect the week ahead to be busy, with holidays ending and more market pros back at their desks. There is some economic data, most importantly Friday’s consumer price index. The reading on consumer inflation is expected to show little change in core inflation with forecasts for a gain of just 0.2% in August, or 1.6% year over year.

Froth blowing off

The stock sell-off came as market pros were becoming increasingly wary of froth in the market, particularly in tech and momentum names. On Friday, it was revealed that SoftBank was behind billions in large options bets on individual tech stocks, like Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla. News reports said the trades were made over the past month, and SoftBank had been building unusually large positions in call options, or those that bet the prices of underlying stocks would rise.
One analyst said the fact that SoftBank was “gunning the market” makes him worry that there is more selling to come in Nasdaq names. As SoftBank bought call options, the sellers had to buy stocks, conceivably driving up prices in a trading feedback loop.
“It’s just a trip to the casino,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “If they’re supposed to be an investment company taking a long-term horizon, then trying to juice your short-term return through options, you’ve turned into a hedge fund.”
JPMorgan strategists said they expect the market to recover gradually, but there are still presidential election uncertainties looming in the next couple of months.
“The significant reduction in previously extreme long positions in Nasdaq by momentum traders should allow the equity market to recover over the coming weeks, as happened after the June 11th correction,” noted JPMorgan analysts. “But a repeat of the strong gains seen during July and August is less likely over the next two months.”
Grohowski said there could be more selling in the tech and internet companies, or those that were viewed did well as workers stayed home and the economy was shutdown. “It’s not the start of a big lasting correction, but a forewarning the next couple of weeks and months are going to be choppy. I think it’s going to be a sideways kind of market,” Grohowski said. He added the market could be choppy in the week ahead.
“We’re a little more cautious, not to mention the market is trading at 23 times our earnings estimates for 2021,” said Grohowski. He said the fact there is about $4.5 trillion in money market funds is a bullish signm since that money could find its way into the stock market.
Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said the S&P 500 could dip to its 200-day moving average, or 3,092, before rebounding, which would be about a 15% move in total.
“I don’t think the sell-off is over. Nasdaq is up 83%s since March 23, the S&P is up 63%,” said Emanuel.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Small Caps Best Day After Labor Day

In the last 21 years, only Russell 2000 has registered an average gain of 0.16% on the Tuesday after the long Labor Day weekend. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have struggled with negative average performance. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been up five of the last eight years, but DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all have fallen for the last three years on Tuesday. On Wednesday the market’s performance has been varied. DJIA has performed the best, up 76.2% of the time with an average gain of 0.25%. S&P 500 is worst, up only 42.9% of the time with an average gain of 0.13%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Big August: Bullish or Bearish?

Big August 2020 logged the 4th biggest August percent gain for the S&P 500 since 1949 and the 6th biggest since 1930. But, is this bullish or bearish for the market in the coming months? Hopefully the table below provides some perspective by comparing the previous Top 20 S&P 500 Augusts since 1949 to July, September, Q4 and the succeeding “Best Six Months” November-April.
Subsequent Septembers were down 15 of 20 years for an average loss of -1.0% (median loss of -0.7%). Q4 is positive with gains in 13 of the 20 years for an average gain of 1.0% (median gain of 3.0%). The following Best Six Months are more bullish, up 16 of the 20 years with an average gain of 7.6% (median gain of 8.5%).
Looking at just the 7 years that were preceded by big Julys shows some improvement for September but Q4s are worse, containing the largest Q4 losses. Back-to-back big Julys and big Augusts were followed by improved Best Six Months results, up in all 7 instances with a higher average and median gain and the top gain.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Analyzing the Jobs Report

The jobs market remains strong, as the August nonfarm payrolls came in at a solid 1.37 million jobs created, right in line with expectations. This was the fourth consecutive month of gains, up 10.6 million over this time frame. In March and April more than 22 million jobs were lost, so we still aren’t quite to half of the jobs recovered though.
This was the second consecutive month there was a very weak ADP private payrolls number ahead of the monthly jobs report, adding to the worries, but the actual nonfarm payroll number was once again quite solid. Don’t forget, just yesterday we saw initial jobless claims come in at 881,000, the lowest number since the week ending March 14, another improving employment number.
The big surprise in today’s report though was the unemployment rate fell to 8.4%, from 10.2% last month and an expected 9.8%. This was the lowest unemployment rate since 4.4% in March.
“This was an impressive report and once again showed the economy remained quite resilient,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But 8% unemployment is 8% unemployment, so let’s not get too excited, but we’ll still take this improving trend in the employment picture.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, even though more than 10 million jobs have been created in the past four months, the sad truth is we are still quite a long way from recovering all the jobs lost due to the pandemic. In fact, looking at previous cycles, it has taken years for all of the lost jobs to come back and this time doesn’t appear any different.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing to consider is could this solid number make it harder for Washington to agree on the next stimulus plan? We are watching this closely, but with the two sides still close to a trillion dollars apart, today’s report will likely do little to help the two sides come to a quick resolution.
Last, don’t forget that stocks gained more than 60% in less than six months, so some weakness would be perfectly normal. In fact, looking at the two previous strongest starts to a bull market ever (’82 and ’09) both saw some weakness right around now.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

3 Charts To Watch If You Are Bullish

The S&P 500 Index just closed the door on its best August since 1986, making new all-time highs along the way, while also closing up five months in a row.
First things first, make no mistake about it; this is a new bull market. That of course doesn’t mean it will last years like previous bull markets, but a nearly 57% gain in 5 months is what we’d classify as a bull market.
Here are all the bull markets going back to the Great Depression and where this one ranks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Now let’s dig into the 5 month win streak. It is quite rare for stocks to gain from April through August, as the summer months tend to be somewhat tricky. Yet, we found there were six other years that saw these 5 months all close higher and the rest of the year was higher five times, with some solid returns in there. In fact, the only year that was lower the rest of the year was 2018, mainly due to the Fed policy mistake in December 2018.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“What might surprise many investors is 5 month win streaks are actually incredibly bullish going forward,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, a year after a 5 month win streak has seen the S&P 500 higher 25 of the past 26 times.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 Index gained more than 35% during this 5 month win streak, the most ever. Yet, the future gains after 5 month win streaks is very impressive, higher 25 out of 26 times a year later. An object in motion tends to stay in motion and this sure seems to be the case here.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historic August Opens Door To Worst Month Of The Year

What a month August has been so far, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 7%, for the best August since 1984. Not to be outdone, this is the first time in history August saw two separate 6-day (or more) win streaks. Last, with one day to go, the S&P 500 has gained 16 days so far this month, for the most since 16 in April 2019. Meanwhile, it is the most up days for any August since 2003.
“Well, 2020 has laughed at many of these things, but be aware September is indeed the worst month of the year on average,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But what caught our attention was both September and October have a negative return during election years, with October the worst month of the year. Could investors get election jitters again in 2020?”
As show in the LPL Chart of the Day, September tends to be a weak month. In fact, it is the weakest month on average since 1950. Additionally, the last two times August was up more than 5% were 1986 and 2000; the S&P 500 fell 8.5% and 5.4% in September those years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Breaking things down by just an election year shows that August actually tends to be strong. That obviously played out this year, but now will the weakness we usually see in September and October play out?
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Finally, after today, the S&P 500 will be up 5 consecutive months. Looking at the other years that saw a similar summer rallies, there tended to be more strength the final 4 months of the year, with only the Federal Reserve policy mistake of December 2018 blemishing this impressive track record.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Yes, this record equity run is extremely stretched, but we would continue to use any pullbacks as an opportunity to add to longer-term core equity holdings, as the economy continues to come back quicker than most expected.
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.7.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Monday 9.7.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Tuesday 9.8.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.8.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.9.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.9.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.10.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Thursday 9.10.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 9.11.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.11.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Peloton Interactive $80.63

Peloton Interactive (PTON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $566.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.13 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $500.00 million to $520.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 62.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 78.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 92.6% above its 200 day moving average of $41.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 11.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Slack Technologies, Inc. $29.07

Slack Technologies, Inc. (WORK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $208.33 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.04 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $206.00 million to $209.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.94% with revenue increasing by 43.70%. Short interest has increased by 93.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $27.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

lululemon athletica inc. $361.41

lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $832.92 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 41.67% with revenue decreasing by 5.71%. Short interest has decreased by 16.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.7% above its 200 day moving average of $260.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Chewy, Inc. $61.18

Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 42.17%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.3% above its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Kroger Co. $35.47

Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, September 11, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.50 per share on revenue of $29.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.64% with revenue increasing by 5.30%. Short interest has increased by 8.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $31.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,648 contracts of the $33.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Zscaler, Inc. $134.34

Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $118.41 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.02 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $117.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue increasing by 37.51%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 54.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 68.5% above its 200 day moving average of $79.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,017 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 17.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Coupa Software $285.81

Coupa Software (COUP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.14 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.06 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 24.91%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 34.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 41.3% above its 200 day moving average of $202.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 538 contracts of the $270.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lovesac Company $29.44

Lovesac Company (LOVE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $52.58 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 77.42% with revenue increasing by 9.21%. Short interest has decreased by 29.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 41.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.7% above its 200 day moving average of $16.85. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 20.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. $12.86

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $833.66 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.90% with revenue decreasing by 19.91%. Short interest has increased by 45.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.4% above its 200 day moving average of $11.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,605 contracts of the $11.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

HealthEquity, Inc. $58.47

HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.27 per share on revenue of $171.32 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.23 to $0.30 per share on revenue of $168.00 million to $173.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 97.78%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% below its 200 day moving average of $60.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming holiday-shortened trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]


2020.09.05 17:27 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 7th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 7th, 2020.

The stock market shakeout is likely not over yet, even with Friday’s comeback - (Source)

The tech wreck is probably not over, despite Friday’s market comeback.
Analysts expect the shakeout in stocks to continue after the long Labor Day weekend, especially in technology names and the Nasdaq, areas of the market that notched the sharpest gains.
After August’s 7% gain in the S&P 500, stocks started September strong, and then just as quickly rolled over. The Nasdaq lost 5% Thursday and was down sharply Friday but pared losses to decline 1.5%. The S&P 500 was down about 2.3% for the week, even after a 3.5% loss Thursday.
“I think this is a good wake-up call and a reminder that there are risks out there,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “In August, we did take a little bit off the table.”
Analysts expect the week ahead to be busy, with holidays ending and more market pros back at their desks. There is some economic data, most importantly Friday’s consumer price index. The reading on consumer inflation is expected to show little change in core inflation with forecasts for a gain of just 0.2% in August, or 1.6% year over year.

Froth blowing off

The stock sell-off came as market pros were becoming increasingly wary of froth in the market, particularly in tech and momentum names. On Friday, it was revealed that SoftBank was behind billions in large options bets on individual tech stocks, like Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla. News reports said the trades were made over the past month, and SoftBank had been building unusually large positions in call options, or those that bet the prices of underlying stocks would rise.
One analyst said the fact that SoftBank was “gunning the market” makes him worry that there is more selling to come in Nasdaq names. As SoftBank bought call options, the sellers had to buy stocks, conceivably driving up prices in a trading feedback loop.
“It’s just a trip to the casino,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “If they’re supposed to be an investment company taking a long-term horizon, then trying to juice your short-term return through options, you’ve turned into a hedge fund.”
JPMorgan strategists said they expect the market to recover gradually, but there are still presidential election uncertainties looming in the next couple of months.
“The significant reduction in previously extreme long positions in Nasdaq by momentum traders should allow the equity market to recover over the coming weeks, as happened after the June 11th correction,” noted JPMorgan analysts. “But a repeat of the strong gains seen during July and August is less likely over the next two months.”
Grohowski said there could be more selling in the tech and internet companies, or those that were viewed did well as workers stayed home and the economy was shutdown. “It’s not the start of a big lasting correction, but a forewarning the next couple of weeks and months are going to be choppy. I think it’s going to be a sideways kind of market,” Grohowski said. He added the market could be choppy in the week ahead.
“We’re a little more cautious, not to mention the market is trading at 23 times our earnings estimates for 2021,” said Grohowski. He said the fact there is about $4.5 trillion in money market funds is a bullish signm since that money could find its way into the stock market.
Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said the S&P 500 could dip to its 200-day moving average, or 3,092, before rebounding, which would be about a 15% move in total.
“I don’t think the sell-off is over. Nasdaq is up 83%s since March 23, the S&P is up 63%,” said Emanuel.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Small Caps Best Day After Labor Day

In the last 21 years, only Russell 2000 has registered an average gain of 0.16% on the Tuesday after the long Labor Day weekend. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have struggled with negative average performance. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been up five of the last eight years, but DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all have fallen for the last three years on Tuesday. On Wednesday the market’s performance has been varied. DJIA has performed the best, up 76.2% of the time with an average gain of 0.25%. S&P 500 is worst, up only 42.9% of the time with an average gain of 0.13%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Big August: Bullish or Bearish?

Big August 2020 logged the 4th biggest August percent gain for the S&P 500 since 1949 and the 6th biggest since 1930. But, is this bullish or bearish for the market in the coming months? Hopefully the table below provides some perspective by comparing the previous Top 20 S&P 500 Augusts since 1949 to July, September, Q4 and the succeeding “Best Six Months” November-April.
Subsequent Septembers were down 15 of 20 years for an average loss of -1.0% (median loss of -0.7%). Q4 is positive with gains in 13 of the 20 years for an average gain of 1.0% (median gain of 3.0%). The following Best Six Months are more bullish, up 16 of the 20 years with an average gain of 7.6% (median gain of 8.5%).
Looking at just the 7 years that were preceded by big Julys shows some improvement for September but Q4s are worse, containing the largest Q4 losses. Back-to-back big Julys and big Augusts were followed by improved Best Six Months results, up in all 7 instances with a higher average and median gain and the top gain.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Analyzing the Jobs Report

The jobs market remains strong, as the August nonfarm payrolls came in at a solid 1.37 million jobs created, right in line with expectations. This was the fourth consecutive month of gains, up 10.6 million over this time frame. In March and April more than 22 million jobs were lost, so we still aren’t quite to half of the jobs recovered though.
This was the second consecutive month there was a very weak ADP private payrolls number ahead of the monthly jobs report, adding to the worries, but the actual nonfarm payroll number was once again quite solid. Don’t forget, just yesterday we saw initial jobless claims come in at 881,000, the lowest number since the week ending March 14, another improving employment number.
The big surprise in today’s report though was the unemployment rate fell to 8.4%, from 10.2% last month and an expected 9.8%. This was the lowest unemployment rate since 4.4% in March.
“This was an impressive report and once again showed the economy remained quite resilient,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But 8% unemployment is 8% unemployment, so let’s not get too excited, but we’ll still take this improving trend in the employment picture.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, even though more than 10 million jobs have been created in the past four months, the sad truth is we are still quite a long way from recovering all the jobs lost due to the pandemic. In fact, looking at previous cycles, it has taken years for all of the lost jobs to come back and this time doesn’t appear any different.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing to consider is could this solid number make it harder for Washington to agree on the next stimulus plan? We are watching this closely, but with the two sides still close to a trillion dollars apart, today’s report will likely do little to help the two sides come to a quick resolution.
Last, don’t forget that stocks gained more than 60% in less than six months, so some weakness would be perfectly normal. In fact, looking at the two previous strongest starts to a bull market ever (’82 and ’09) both saw some weakness right around now.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

3 Charts To Watch If You Are Bullish

The S&P 500 Index just closed the door on its best August since 1986, making new all-time highs along the way, while also closing up five months in a row.
First things first, make no mistake about it; this is a new bull market. That of course doesn’t mean it will last years like previous bull markets, but a nearly 57% gain in 5 months is what we’d classify as a bull market.
Here are all the bull markets going back to the Great Depression and where this one ranks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Now let’s dig into the 5 month win streak. It is quite rare for stocks to gain from April through August, as the summer months tend to be somewhat tricky. Yet, we found there were six other years that saw these 5 months all close higher and the rest of the year was higher five times, with some solid returns in there. In fact, the only year that was lower the rest of the year was 2018, mainly due to the Fed policy mistake in December 2018.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“What might surprise many investors is 5 month win streaks are actually incredibly bullish going forward,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, a year after a 5 month win streak has seen the S&P 500 higher 25 of the past 26 times.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 Index gained more than 35% during this 5 month win streak, the most ever. Yet, the future gains after 5 month win streaks is very impressive, higher 25 out of 26 times a year later. An object in motion tends to stay in motion and this sure seems to be the case here.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historic August Opens Door To Worst Month Of The Year

What a month August has been so far, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 7%, for the best August since 1984. Not to be outdone, this is the first time in history August saw two separate 6-day (or more) win streaks. Last, with one day to go, the S&P 500 has gained 16 days so far this month, for the most since 16 in April 2019. Meanwhile, it is the most up days for any August since 2003.
“Well, 2020 has laughed at many of these things, but be aware September is indeed the worst month of the year on average,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But what caught our attention was both September and October have a negative return during election years, with October the worst month of the year. Could investors get election jitters again in 2020?”
As show in the LPL Chart of the Day, September tends to be a weak month. In fact, it is the weakest month on average since 1950. Additionally, the last two times August was up more than 5% were 1986 and 2000; the S&P 500 fell 8.5% and 5.4% in September those years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Breaking things down by just an election year shows that August actually tends to be strong. That obviously played out this year, but now will the weakness we usually see in September and October play out?
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Finally, after today, the S&P 500 will be up 5 consecutive months. Looking at the other years that saw a similar summer rallies, there tended to be more strength the final 4 months of the year, with only the Federal Reserve policy mistake of December 2018 blemishing this impressive track record.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Yes, this record equity run is extremely stretched, but we would continue to use any pullbacks as an opportunity to add to longer-term core equity holdings, as the economy continues to come back quicker than most expected.
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.7.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Monday 9.7.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Tuesday 9.8.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.8.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.9.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.9.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.10.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Thursday 9.10.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 9.11.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.11.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Peloton Interactive $80.63

Peloton Interactive (PTON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $566.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.13 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $500.00 million to $520.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 62.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 78.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 92.6% above its 200 day moving average of $41.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 11.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Slack Technologies, Inc. $29.07

Slack Technologies, Inc. (WORK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $208.33 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.04 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $206.00 million to $209.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.94% with revenue increasing by 43.70%. Short interest has increased by 93.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $27.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

lululemon athletica inc. $361.41

lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $832.92 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 41.67% with revenue decreasing by 5.71%. Short interest has decreased by 16.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.7% above its 200 day moving average of $260.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Chewy, Inc. $61.18

Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 42.17%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.3% above its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Kroger Co. $35.47

Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, September 11, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.50 per share on revenue of $29.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.64% with revenue increasing by 5.30%. Short interest has increased by 8.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $31.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,648 contracts of the $33.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Zscaler, Inc. $134.34

Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $118.41 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.02 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $117.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue increasing by 37.51%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 54.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 68.5% above its 200 day moving average of $79.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,017 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 17.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Coupa Software $285.81

Coupa Software (COUP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.14 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.06 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 24.91%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 34.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 41.3% above its 200 day moving average of $202.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 538 contracts of the $270.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lovesac Company $29.44

Lovesac Company (LOVE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $52.58 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 77.42% with revenue increasing by 9.21%. Short interest has decreased by 29.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 41.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.7% above its 200 day moving average of $16.85. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 20.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. $12.86

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $833.66 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.90% with revenue decreasing by 19.91%. Short interest has increased by 45.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.4% above its 200 day moving average of $11.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,605 contracts of the $11.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

HealthEquity, Inc. $58.47

HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.27 per share on revenue of $171.32 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.23 to $0.30 per share on revenue of $168.00 million to $173.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 97.78%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% below its 200 day moving average of $60.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming holiday-shortened trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead wallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]


2020.09.04 23:06 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 7th, 2020

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 7th, 2020.

The stock market shakeout is likely not over yet, even with Friday’s comeback - (Source)

The tech wreck is probably not over, despite Friday’s market comeback.
Analysts expect the shakeout in stocks to continue after the long Labor Day weekend, especially in technology names and the Nasdaq, areas of the market that notched the sharpest gains.
After August’s 7% gain in the S&P 500, stocks started September strong, and then just as quickly rolled over. The Nasdaq lost 5% Thursday and was down sharply Friday but pared losses to decline 1.5%. The S&P 500 was down about 2.3% for the week, even after a 3.5% loss Thursday.
“I think this is a good wake-up call and a reminder that there are risks out there,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “In August, we did take a little bit off the table.”
Analysts expect the week ahead to be busy, with holidays ending and more market pros back at their desks. There is some economic data, most importantly Friday’s consumer price index. The reading on consumer inflation is expected to show little change in core inflation with forecasts for a gain of just 0.2% in August, or 1.6% year over year.

Froth blowing off

The stock sell-off came as market pros were becoming increasingly wary of froth in the market, particularly in tech and momentum names. On Friday, it was revealed that SoftBank was behind billions in large options bets on individual tech stocks, like Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla. News reports said the trades were made over the past month, and SoftBank had been building unusually large positions in call options, or those that bet the prices of underlying stocks would rise.
One analyst said the fact that SoftBank was “gunning the market” makes him worry that there is more selling to come in Nasdaq names. As SoftBank bought call options, the sellers had to buy stocks, conceivably driving up prices in a trading feedback loop.
“It’s just a trip to the casino,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “If they’re supposed to be an investment company taking a long-term horizon, then trying to juice your short-term return through options, you’ve turned into a hedge fund.”
JPMorgan strategists said they expect the market to recover gradually, but there are still presidential election uncertainties looming in the next couple of months.
“The significant reduction in previously extreme long positions in Nasdaq by momentum traders should allow the equity market to recover over the coming weeks, as happened after the June 11th correction,” noted JPMorgan analysts. “But a repeat of the strong gains seen during July and August is less likely over the next two months.”
Grohowski said there could be more selling in the tech and internet companies, or those that were viewed did well as workers stayed home and the economy was shutdown. “It’s not the start of a big lasting correction, but a forewarning the next couple of weeks and months are going to be choppy. I think it’s going to be a sideways kind of market,” Grohowski said. He added the market could be choppy in the week ahead.
“We’re a little more cautious, not to mention the market is trading at 23 times our earnings estimates for 2021,” said Grohowski. He said the fact there is about $4.5 trillion in money market funds is a bullish signm since that money could find its way into the stock market.
Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said the S&P 500 could dip to its 200-day moving average, or 3,092, before rebounding, which would be about a 15% move in total.
“I don’t think the sell-off is over. Nasdaq is up 83%s since March 23, the S&P is up 63%,” said Emanuel.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Small Caps Best Day After Labor Day

In the last 21 years, only Russell 2000 has registered an average gain of 0.16% on the Tuesday after the long Labor Day weekend. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have struggled with negative average performance. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been up five of the last eight years, but DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all have fallen for the last three years on Tuesday. On Wednesday the market’s performance has been varied. DJIA has performed the best, up 76.2% of the time with an average gain of 0.25%. S&P 500 is worst, up only 42.9% of the time with an average gain of 0.13%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Big August: Bullish or Bearish?

Big August 2020 logged the 4th biggest August percent gain for the S&P 500 since 1949 and the 6th biggest since 1930. But, is this bullish or bearish for the market in the coming months? Hopefully the table below provides some perspective by comparing the previous Top 20 S&P 500 Augusts since 1949 to July, September, Q4 and the succeeding “Best Six Months” November-April.
Subsequent Septembers were down 15 of 20 years for an average loss of -1.0% (median loss of -0.7%). Q4 is positive with gains in 13 of the 20 years for an average gain of 1.0% (median gain of 3.0%). The following Best Six Months are more bullish, up 16 of the 20 years with an average gain of 7.6% (median gain of 8.5%).
Looking at just the 7 years that were preceded by big Julys shows some improvement for September but Q4s are worse, containing the largest Q4 losses. Back-to-back big Julys and big Augusts were followed by improved Best Six Months results, up in all 7 instances with a higher average and median gain and the top gain.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Analyzing the Jobs Report

The jobs market remains strong, as the August nonfarm payrolls came in at a solid 1.37 million jobs created, right in line with expectations. This was the fourth consecutive month of gains, up 10.6 million over this time frame. In March and April more than 22 million jobs were lost, so we still aren’t quite to half of the jobs recovered though.
This was the second consecutive month there was a very weak ADP private payrolls number ahead of the monthly jobs report, adding to the worries, but the actual nonfarm payroll number was once again quite solid. Don’t forget, just yesterday we saw initial jobless claims come in at 881,000, the lowest number since the week ending March 14, another improving employment number.
The big surprise in today’s report though was the unemployment rate fell to 8.4%, from 10.2% last month and an expected 9.8%. This was the lowest unemployment rate since 4.4% in March.
“This was an impressive report and once again showed the economy remained quite resilient,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But 8% unemployment is 8% unemployment, so let’s not get too excited, but we’ll still take this improving trend in the employment picture.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, even though more than 10 million jobs have been created in the past four months, the sad truth is we are still quite a long way from recovering all the jobs lost due to the pandemic. In fact, looking at previous cycles, it has taken years for all of the lost jobs to come back and this time doesn’t appear any different.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing to consider is could this solid number make it harder for Washington to agree on the next stimulus plan? We are watching this closely, but with the two sides still close to a trillion dollars apart, today’s report will likely do little to help the two sides come to a quick resolution.
Last, don’t forget that stocks gained more than 60% in less than six months, so some weakness would be perfectly normal. In fact, looking at the two previous strongest starts to a bull market ever (’82 and ’09) both saw some weakness right around now.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

3 Charts To Watch If You Are Bullish

The S&P 500 Index just closed the door on its best August since 1986, making new all-time highs along the way, while also closing up five months in a row.
First things first, make no mistake about it; this is a new bull market. That of course doesn’t mean it will last years like previous bull markets, but a nearly 57% gain in 5 months is what we’d classify as a bull market.
Here are all the bull markets going back to the Great Depression and where this one ranks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Now let’s dig into the 5 month win streak. It is quite rare for stocks to gain from April through August, as the summer months tend to be somewhat tricky. Yet, we found there were six other years that saw these 5 months all close higher and the rest of the year was higher five times, with some solid returns in there. In fact, the only year that was lower the rest of the year was 2018, mainly due to the Fed policy mistake in December 2018.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“What might surprise many investors is 5 month win streaks are actually incredibly bullish going forward,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, a year after a 5 month win streak has seen the S&P 500 higher 25 of the past 26 times.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 Index gained more than 35% during this 5 month win streak, the most ever. Yet, the future gains after 5 month win streaks is very impressive, higher 25 out of 26 times a year later. An object in motion tends to stay in motion and this sure seems to be the case here.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Historic August Opens Door To Worst Month Of The Year

What a month August has been so far, with the S&P 500 Index up more than 7%, for the best August since 1984. Not to be outdone, this is the first time in history August saw two separate 6-day (or more) win streaks. Last, with one day to go, the S&P 500 has gained 16 days so far this month, for the most since 16 in April 2019. Meanwhile, it is the most up days for any August since 2003.
“Well, 2020 has laughed at many of these things, but be aware September is indeed the worst month of the year on average,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But what caught our attention was both September and October have a negative return during election years, with October the worst month of the year. Could investors get election jitters again in 2020?”
As show in the LPL Chart of the Day, September tends to be a weak month. In fact, it is the weakest month on average since 1950. Additionally, the last two times August was up more than 5% were 1986 and 2000; the S&P 500 fell 8.5% and 5.4% in September those years.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Breaking things down by just an election year shows that August actually tends to be strong. That obviously played out this year, but now will the weakness we usually see in September and October play out?
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Finally, after today, the S&P 500 will be up 5 consecutive months. Looking at the other years that saw a similar summer rallies, there tended to be more strength the final 4 months of the year, with only the Federal Reserve policy mistake of December 2018 blemishing this impressive track record.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Yes, this record equity run is extremely stretched, but we would continue to use any pullbacks as an opportunity to add to longer-term core equity holdings, as the economy continues to come back quicker than most expected.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending September 4th, 2020

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.6.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $PTON
  • $WORK
  • $LULU
  • $CHWY
  • $KR
  • $ZS
  • $COUP
  • $LOVE
  • $AEO
  • $HQY
  • $GFN
  • $GME
  • $ORCL
  • $PLAY
  • $RH
  • $HDS
  • $UXIN
  • $MCFT
  • $FCEL
  • $CASY
  • $MEIP
  • $NAV
  • $REVG
  • $NSSC
  • $ABM
  • $SCWX
  • $PHR
  • $ALOT
  • $CVGW
  • $DSGX
  • $ZUMZ
  • $GIII
  • $AVAV
  • $BIOX
  • $BIGC
  • $LAKE
  • $LTRX
  • $BBCP
  • $VRNT
  • $FARM
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 9.7.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Monday 9.7.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE. U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF LABOR DAY.)

Tuesday 9.8.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 9.8.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.9.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 9.9.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 9.10.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Thursday 9.10.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 9.11.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 9.11.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Peloton Interactive $80.63

Peloton Interactive (PTON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.10 per share on revenue of $566.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.13 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $500.00 million to $520.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 62.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 78.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 92.6% above its 200 day moving average of $41.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 11.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Slack Technologies, Inc. $29.07

Slack Technologies, Inc. (WORK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $208.33 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for a loss of $0.04 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $206.00 million to $209.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 96.94% with revenue increasing by 43.70%. Short interest has increased by 93.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 8.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.8% above its 200 day moving average of $27.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

lululemon athletica inc. $361.41

lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $832.92 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 41.67% with revenue decreasing by 5.71%. Short interest has decreased by 16.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.7% above its 200 day moving average of $260.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Chewy, Inc. $61.18

Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Thursday, September 10, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.14) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 28.57% with revenue increasing by 42.17%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.3% above its 200 day moving average of $38.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Kroger Co. $35.47

Kroger Co. (KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Friday, September 11, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.50 per share on revenue of $29.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 13.64% with revenue increasing by 5.30%. Short interest has increased by 8.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.1% above its 200 day moving average of $31.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,648 contracts of the $33.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Zscaler, Inc. $134.34

Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $118.41 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.05 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.02 to $0.03 per share on revenue of $117.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 57.14% with revenue increasing by 37.51%. Short interest has decreased by 23.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 54.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 68.5% above its 200 day moving average of $79.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, August 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,017 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 17.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Coupa Software $285.81

Coupa Software (COUP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.14 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.06 to $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.00 million to $119.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 24.91%. Short interest has decreased by 12.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 34.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 41.3% above its 200 day moving average of $202.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 538 contracts of the $270.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lovesac Company $29.44

Lovesac Company (LOVE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $52.58 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 77.42% with revenue increasing by 9.21%. Short interest has decreased by 29.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 41.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.7% above its 200 day moving average of $16.85. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 20.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. $12.86

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, September 9, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.14 per share on revenue of $833.66 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.11) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.90% with revenue decreasing by 19.91%. Short interest has increased by 45.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.4% above its 200 day moving average of $11.54. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,605 contracts of the $11.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

HealthEquity, Inc. $58.47

HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, September 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.27 per share on revenue of $171.32 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.31 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.23 to $0.30 per share on revenue of $168.00 million to $173.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 97.78%. Short interest has decreased by 3.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% below its 200 day moving average of $60.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming holiday-shortened trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]


2020.08.27 01:01 postmaster_ru Кто и как слушает нас в телефонах и компьютерах?

Кто и как слушает нас в телефонах и компьютерах?
Кто-то прослушивает вас через смартфон, отслеживает по геолокации, наблюдает через камеры ноутбука, записывает через микрофон. Паранойя или реальность? Надо ли бояться современной техники?
https://preview.redd.it/2f15gznigfj51.jpg?width=848&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8e3d744fc87e32759d9e4cee1bc5d421f6cc314c
Мы поговорили об этом с Василием Буровым — специалистом в сфере IT, советником МИЭМ НИУ ВШЭ, председателем совета директоров компании WikiVote, соучредителем АНО «Информационная культура».
Многие люди всерьез беспокоятся о том, что за ними ведется слежка с помощью современной техники. Насколько обоснованны такие опасения?
Все это очень близко к реальности. Устройство, следящее за нами, всегда у нас в кармане. Эта слежка не целевая, она касается содержания нашего разговора, а точнее, ключевых слов, которые мы произнесли, чтобы нам потом по ним показать рекламу. Реализует подобное, конечно, не сам смартфон — кусок железа, пластмассы и стекла, а программа, которая на нем установлена. Умные программы собирают массу данных. Часто совсем в открытую: например, предлагают выставить локацию для получения рекомендаций «лучших» мест. Пользователь соглашается. Но как узнать, какие места нравятся человеку? Надо посмотреть, где он бывает, где ему интересно. И тут возникает тот самый эффект слежки.
Конечно, все зависит от того, какой смысл вкладывать в слово «следят». Речь идет не о злодеях, которые специально выслеживают вас, чтобы выяснить политические предпочтения или узнать, когда вас нет дома, а о технологиях современного маркетинга. Конечно, можно поспорить, является ли благом манипуляция потребителями, но нам же приятно и удобно пользоваться бесплатно многими приложениями, решать с помощью смартфона множество задач. А на какие деньги это существует? Ровно на те, которые стоят собираемые о нас данные.
Как это работает? Те, кому нужны ваши данные, предлагают установить какое-нибудь приятное и полезное приложение. В таковых часто оказываются заложены скрытые системы слежения. И многие популярные приложения, в том числе связанные с государством (федеральные и региональные госуслуги и др.), собирают данные в количестве, явно выходящем за пределы того, что нужно для заявляемого функционала. В ближайшее время наше АНО «Информационная культура» готовит к выпуску небольшой доклад по результатам тестирования самых популярных приложений.
Ну и есть второй смысл — это откровенно противоправные действия. Когда за конкретным человеком нужно проследить или что-то украсть, возможно ли это с помощью современных технологий? Да. Современные устройства и программные обеспечения на них слишком сложны, чтобы простой пользователь смог с этим разобраться и понять, какое шпионское ПО у него установлено. Такая слежка — специальные, достаточно дорогие действия, направленные на конкретного человека, в отношении которого понятно, зачем это делать. Они были бы направлены на него и до появления смартфонов, но сегодня стали проще и технологичнее.
Мотивы для слежки есть не только у маркетологов. Например, недавно в разгар пандемии велась слежка за зараженными коронавирусом.
Пандемия и карантин — это немножко сложнее. Государство так просто не может получить доступ к нашим перемещениям по улицам с высокой точностью, которую имеют основные программные платформы. Да и сами мобильные сети принадлежат крупным корпорациям, живущим в определенном правовом поле и заинтересованным в корректной работе с данными пользователей. Отсюда государству потребовалось заставлять нас устанавливать специальное «шпионское» приложение на свои гаджеты. Но нельзя это называть абсолютной слежкой — например, мы могли выйти в магазин, оставив телефон дома. Проблема заключалась не только в сомнительной правомерности этого процесса, но и в низком качестве приложения. Была зарегистрирована масса ложных срабатываний, вызвавших начисление штрафов за нарушения совершенно неповинным людям.
Когда за вами ходит сыщик, он вас явно идентифицирует, и, как показано в приключенческих фильмах, от шпиков легко сбегают, переменив бороду, надев парик и плащ. Есть подобные методы и в цифровом пространстве.
Предлагаете не паниковать из-за Большого брата?
Скорее понимать, как это происходит, и выбирать для себя линию поведения. Бояться, что устройства могут использоваться для слежки, конечно, надо. Но если кому-то понадобится за нами целенаправленно следить, он будет это делать и безо всяких устройств. А вот слежка для маркетингового применения без гаджетов не была раньше возможна. Здесь есть конкретная экономическая цель. Когда это делается в маркетинговых интересах, нам нужно, чтобы это было очень дешево, и именно эту возможность дают мобильные устройства. Вот, например, простая ситуация. У вашего мобильного устройства есть разные характеристики, которые позволяют посмотреть, где вы подключаетесь к сети вайфай. Благодаря этому можно проследить ваш маршрут, даже не имея доступа к данным сотовых операторов. Когда компания делает бесплатный доступ к вайфаю в разных местах города, она знает, как вы перемещаетесь, приехали вы в ресторан на машине или на метро и т. д.
Бывают такие жалобы: «Я сказал что-то просто другу, и тут мне начали показывать рекламу». Это уже паранойя?
Все ровно так и делается. У вашего телефона есть микрофон. А значит, есть возможность его использовать. Современные технологии позволяют легко распознавать ключевые слова. Этой функции достаточно, но это не значит, что все ваши разговоры записываются. Вы произносите слово «Рено», и вскоре реклама из Google начнет показывать вам автомобили. Распознавание звука работает хорошо уже давно. Вы говорите «О’кей, "Гугл"» — и задаете запрос. Ставите «Алису» и общаетесь с ней. Таких программ множество, распознавание голоса сегодня — одно из наиболее простых и массовых применений того, что называется искусственным интеллектом. Но надо понимать, что использовать это для слежки, постоянно распознавая все, что вы говорите, записывая и анализируя, — крайне сложно и дорого. Поэтому этого никто не делает.
Еще немного паранойи. Государство могло бы с помощью уличных камер и нейросети ловить преступников, вычислять на улицах тех, кто не платит алименты, и вообще держать на крючке каждого…
Все мы читали «1984» Оруэлла — у него это описано. Какое-то количество преступлений уже раскрывается при помощи распознавания лиц с камер. Обществу очень важно договориться, что с этим делать. Собираются ли люди высказать свое недовольство? С одной стороны, сбор данных государством дает некоторые функции обеспечения безопасности — тот самый поиск преступников. С другой стороны, авторитарные или тоталитарные государства могут этим пользоваться. А могут и обычные преступники: доступ государства к персональной информации увеличивает вероятность их утечки. Они могут быть использованы даже не государством, желающим прижать нас к ногтю, а преступными элементами.
Как показывает статистика, утечки данных из государственного сектора встречаются гораздо чаще, чем из коммерческого. Можно сколько угодно обвинять предпринимателей во всех грехах, как это в России бывает, но именно государственные, а не коммерческие базы продаются в первую очередь. Любые данные, которые попали в руки государства, на черном рынке данных оказываются почти мгновенно. Это обусловлено разными факторами, например квалификацией — у государства мало специалистов по информационной безопасности, мотивацией — на государственную службу зачастую идут не высокоморальные люди, а те, кто желает заработать на этой должности.
Где баланс между нашей открытостью для обеспечения общественной безопасности и тем, что является угрозой нашим свободам как со стороны государства, так и со стороны криминальных деятелей? Это большой вопрос, о котором мир пока не договорился. Больше всего про это думают в Европе. Исторически Европа очень сильно ориентирована на права человека и на соблюдение приватности. Гораздо больше, чем Азия и Америка. Но даже в Европе эти вопросы до конца не продуманы и не урегулированы, хотя у них есть очень сильное законодательство в этой области: GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation) — нормы, описывающие использование персональных данных. Они далеки от идеала, но обозначают движение в эту сторону.
Что можно посоветовать тем, кто слишком сильно боится слежки? Отключать геолокацию, заклеивать видеокамеру на ноутбуке?
Носить на голове мешок, чтобы вас не видели камеры. Шучу. Если вы хотите уменьшить слежение за собой, вы должны отказаться от использования социальных сетей и от смартфона — купить себе самый простой кнопочный телефон. В телефоне должна быть сим-карта, оформленная точно не на вас. Дальше все зависит от уровня паранойи человека. Избавьтесь от лишних приложений. Не надо ставить непонятные приложения — ограничьтесь продуктами известных крупных компаний. Когда вы устанавливаете новую программу, вас спрашивают, что ей можно разрешить. Старайтесь разрешать как можно меньше: соотносите функции приложения с теми разрешениями, которые оно запрашивает. Если вы что-то ищете в онлайн-магазине, ведите поиск в приватном режиме браузера — тогда у вас на компьютере не останется следов и вы избежите лишней рекламы. Но никакой анонимности в Сети нет, все ходы записываются.
Выключать геолокацию, заклеивать камеру и микрофон на устройствах, конечно, можно, но зачем вам тогда это устройство? Есть специальные программки для телефонов, уменьшающие возможности за вами следить, — они сделаны любителями, беспокоящимися о своей приватности. Но вообще, мне кажется, что современному человеку надо смириться с тем, что за ним следят. Пока общество не придумало, что с этим делать, и не осознало всех последствий. Часть людей эту проблему сильно преувеличивает, а другая половина вообще не замечает.
Я лично знаю людей, которые отключают геолокацию и заклеивают камеры. Но при этом первое, что они делают, приходя в какое-то место, — подключаются к местному открытому вайфаю, что перечеркивает их усилия по сохранению приватности.
Понимаете, обезопасить себя — это отказаться от привычных современных практик. Боюсь, что для многих это не вариант. Скорее наше будущее заключается в том, чтобы научиться с этим жить. Научиться регулировать и контролировать эту область.
Источник
submitted by postmaster_ru to Popular_Science_Ru [link] [comments]


2020.08.26 00:10 JoseMikey Koronawątek z 26.08.2020. Ostatni “wakacyjny”

Koronawątek z 26.08.2020.
Zapraszam do dyskusji. Nowego ministra zdwoia już mamy, ekonomistę, nie lekarza. Eksperyment ciekawy. Byly szef NFZ, znany raczej z oszczędności. No zobaczymy.
Przypadki:
20.08 - 768
21.08 - 903 (obecny rekord)
22.08 - 900
23.08 - 581
24.08 - 548
25.08 - 763
edit: 26.08 - 729
edit: 27.08 - 887, Małopolska wciaż na faki, troche przeraża powoli dziś 233, a województwo spore, ale jednak tylko 3,4 mln mieszkańców, o milion mniej niż Ślask i o dwa niż Mazowsze.
edit: 28.08 - 791
edit: 29.08 - 759
edit: 30.08 - 631
edit: 31.08 - 502 (na koniec miesiaca najniższy wynik w sierpniu)
Ostatnio na 100k mieszkańców przoduje MAŁOPOLSKA, mimo Ślaskich przesiewów. Niepokojaca sytuacja też w Pomorskim, które było wcześniej spokojne, oraz jak zwykle “radomska” część Mazowsza daje o sobie znać, eksplowodało maleńkie Lipsko.
Poprzedni tydzień: https://www.reddit.com/Polska/comments/ickgzt/koronawątek\_z\_19082020\_pierwsze\_dni\_bez\_sternika/
Sytuacja na świecie: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Sytuacja w Polsce: https://koronawirusunas.pl
Powiaty czerwone, żółte i lista ostrzegawcza: https://twitter.com/mz_gov_pl/status/1298957908944838657?s=21 (Nowa EDIT 27.08.2020)
Na liście ostrzegawczej (nowość, niektórzy mówia że dodana politycznie, bi według wszystkich niezależnych wyliczeń Kraków powinien być żółty), po raz pierwszy znalazły się duże miasta: Kraków, Katowice, Kołobrzeg. Po raz pierwszy wydawało się też że części aglomeracji Warszawskiej maja szansę zrobić się żółte, powiaty otwocki i wołomiński, ale chyba się uspokoiły.
Że wciaż trwaja wakacje przypominam też ograniczenia w wyjazdach zagranicznych:
Zakaz wjazdu dla Polaków w celach turystycznych: Finlandia, Irlandia, Węgry
Kwarantanna dla Polaków: Litwa, Łotwa, Estonia, Norwegia, Słowenia
Polski MSZ radzi zastanowić się nad wyjazdami z uwagi ma wysoka ilość przypadków: Chorwacja, Malta
Możliwa kwarantanna przy kolejnej zmianie list: UK
Podróże bez kwarantanny: Portugalia, Hiszpania, Francja, Szwajcaria, Włochy, Austria, Chorwacja, UK, Czechy, Belgia, Holania, Luksemburg, Grecja, Dania, Niemcy, Słowacja.
Podróże możliwe bez kwarantanny (dla Polaków): Turcja, Egipt (do 31.08), Tunezja
Obowiazkowy test na Covid19: Cypr, Egipt (od 01.09).
UWAGA! Kwestia polskiego zakazu lotów bezpośrednich, według projektu od poczatku września maja się na liście znaleźć, Hiszpania, Rumunia i Malta. Totalnie nielogicznie mówi się o Belgii. Chorwacji nikt nie planuje. A dla Rosji zakaz ma być zniesiony. Więc jak nigdy nie rozumiałem tego zakazu lotów bezpośrednich, bo mało kto taki ma i to nic nie daje (system zielone - otwarte, żółte - kwarantanna, czerwone - zakaz wjazdu z większości przyczyn jaki stosuje 95% krajów ma sens), to wydaje się to być coraz bardziej polityczne.
Shoutout dla u/Jotann, za zauważenie pomyłki, że puściłem to z data 2019. Sorki. Że brak możliwości edycji tytułu, poszedł do śmieci i zrobiłem nowy. Na szczęście zanim zaczęła się dyskusja :)
EDIT:
Nowe zasady kwarantanny:
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/minister-zdrowia-zapowiada-skrocenie-kwarantanny/qp4pqtq,79cfc278
Edit:
Nowa lista zakazu lotów od 02.09.2020. Francji i Chorwacji jednak na liście nie ma. Hiszpania jest. Wiele państw zdjętych, latać można do Chin czy Rosji.
https://dziennikustaw.gov.pl/D2020000149801.pdf
submitted by JoseMikey to Polska [link] [comments]


2020.08.12 21:20 DarkRedFist Способы обхода блокировок интернета. Во время уличных протестов власти блокируют доступ в интернет

ПО и сервисы для обхода блокировки доступа к сети Интернет

Способы обхода блокировок интернета. Во время уличных протестов власти блокируют доступ в интернет


------------------
ПО Briar для связи при отключении (блокировке) Интернета, работает через Bluetooth or Wi-Fi or Tor.
Инструкция Briar https://www.reddit.com/True_Russia/comments/i47faa/
Разработчик Briar Project https://briarproject.org/ - скачать ПО Briar
Installing Briar via F-Droid
https://briarproject.org/installing-briar-via-f-droid/
https://f-droid.org/en/packages/org.briarproject.briar.android/

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2. Средства анонимизации. Обход блокировок сайтов и цензуры в России
https://www.reddit.com/True_Russia/comments/g5c68i/

Средства анонимизации (Tor Browser, VPN, прокси, VPN-расширения для браузеров) помогут вам скрыть ваш трафик от провайдера, от власти и силовых структур России, а также обходить блокировку сайтов в вашей стране.

- Для сохранения анонимности и обхода блокировок сайтов используйте Tor-браузер
скачать https://www.torproject.org/ru/
и Orbot - Tor for Google Android devices https://guardianproject.info/apps/orbot/ .

Также используйте платные прокси, VPN сервисы ( не российские ! ) для анонимизации и обхода блокировок сайтов.
Хотя даже платные сервисы могут слить ваши данные в полицию и спецслужбы.
Выбирайте VPN -сервисы, которые не ведут логов - без логирования трафика (No logs).

- Прокси
Обращайте внимание на тип сервера — transparent proxy или anonymous proxy.
transparent proxy не будут скрывать вашу личность! Всегда используйте anonymous proxy, HTTPS и SOCKS - прокси.
Список множества бесплатных HTTP, HTTPS и SOCKS прокси-серверов можно найти в интернете, либо в Википедии.

- ​В браузер Opera уже встроен VPN
Скачать и установить Opera с официального сайта: https://www.opera.com/

- Список платных VPN -сервисов (рекомедуются):
https://daily.afisha.ru/brain/11845-roskomnadzor-trebuet-ot-vpn-banit-sayty-kto-soglasilsya-a-kto-otkazalsya/

- Для обхода блокировок сайтов (чтобы почитать, посмотреть сайт) можно пользоваться бесплатными прокси и VPN сервисами.
Найти бесплатные VPN расширения для браузера можно в каталогах дополнений по запросу "VPN" , затем установите VPN-расширение в ваш браузер

​- Дополнения (расширения) для браузера Firefox в каталоге Mozilla:
https://addons.mozilla.org/ru/firefox/
- Расширения для браузера Google Chrome и для браузеров на движке Chromium (например для браузера Opera) в магазине Chrome :
https://chrome.google.com/webstore/category/extensions
- Расширения для браузера Opera:
https://addons.opera.com/ru/extensions/

После установки VPN-расширения включите его перед посещением заблокированного сайта.

- Используйте сервисы с end-to-end шифрованием, если не хотите, чтобы полиция, ФСБ читали вашу переписку.
​​
***
- Обход DPI (Deep Packet Inspection) - способы утилиты:
GoodbyeDPI
GoodbyeDPI - Passive Deep Packet Inspection blocker and Active DPI circumvention utility (for Windows)
Скачать утилиту GoodbyeDPI: https://github.com/ValdikSS/GoodbyeDPI

Green Tunnel
​Green Tunnel is an anti-censorship utility designed to bypass DPI system that are put in place by various ISPs to block access to certain websites.
Скачать утилиту Green Tunnel:
https://github.com/SadeghHayeri/GreenTunnel
​***
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Psiphon https://psiphon.ca/
Прокси, для туннелирования используется обфусцированный SSH туннель.
Использовался протестующими Ирана во время массовых блокировок
прямые ссылки на скачивание Psiphon
https://psiphon.ca/PsiphonAndroid.apk
https://s3.amazonaws.com/psiphon/web/mjr4-p23r-puwl/PsiphonAndroid.apk

--------------------------
Но помните:
Как условно-бесплатные Прокси и VPN-провайдеры продают ваши данные
https://habr.com/ru/company/hidemy_name/blog/450416/
The Best VPN Services провёл исследование и выяснил, что некоторые VPN-провайдеры делятся данными пользователей
https://thebestvpn.com/how-free-vpns-sell-your-data/

-------------------------------------------------------------

Как добыть Psiphon VPN на айфон:
  1. Настройка сети WI-FI (кнопка “i”)
  2. В самом низу HTTP-прокси
  3. Пункт “настроить вручную”
  4. Настройки прокси:
Сервер: zhyve.k7paul.com
Порт: 80
Username: zhyve
Password: belarus
------------------------------------------------------------

Способы получить интернет
  1. Найти "свободный" wifi и с помощью него скачать программы vpn. Такой wifi можно раздать с помощью своего телефона, а также в многих торговых центрах свободный wifi.
  2. Передать файл с программой на флешке между компьютерами или по Bluetooth при встрече.
Помогите людям получить информацию. Власть в государстве незаконна захвачена и пытается установить военный режим

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Способы получить интернет iOS [Psiphon] и [HotspotShield]

У вас уникальная операционная система и способ слекга экзотичный.
Она не позволяет устанавливать приложения без подключения к главному сервису. Такая вот защита.
Поэтому вам нужно найти человека у которого уже установлен софт и что бы он раздал вам "чистый" WiFi без блокировки властей. Затем вы скачиваете с офицального сайта и пользуетесь.
Ссылки на офицальный app store:
https://apps.apple.com/ru/app/psiphon/id1276263909
https://apps.apple.com/ru/app/hotspotshield-vpn-wifi-proxy/id443369807

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Матчасть

Рассмотрим, как как нам могут перекрыть доступ? У нас есть вымышленный Интернет ресурс example.com с IP адресом 123.123.123.123. Что с ним могут сделать?

Блокировка по статическому IP адресу (IP black hole). Сомнительный по эффективности способ. В облачных хостингах можно мгновенно получить новый IP адрес. А затем поменять DNS A записи. Да и часто используется Content Distribution Network (CDN), которые хостят ресурсы не на одном IP, и на этом IP по-другому доменному имени хостятся другие веб ресурсы. Заблокируешь эти IP - половина сервисов интернета станут недоступны. При попытках заблокировать Telegram, блокировались пулы CDN IP-адресов, которые использовались клиентским приложением — многие ресурсы стали недоступны. Многие бизнесы пострадали. И это не единcтвенный случай.

Изменении DNS записи (DNS hijacking). Обходится проще всего: нужно изменить DNS сервер в настройках своего роутера или ОС.
Но провайдеры могут пойти дальше. DNS протокол придуман давно, и не предусматривал шифрование или обязательную авторизацию ответа. Таким образом, провайдеры могут перехватывать ваши DNS пакеты на любой DNS сервер (Google DNS 8.8.8.8 или Cloudlfare DNS 1.1.1.1) и отвечать за них другими IP-шниками, которые ведут на страницу блокировки (вместо нашего 123.123.123.123). С такими атаками призван бороться DNSSEC. Но этот подход встретил критику: она заключается в том, что DNSSEC все равно не решает проблему полностью. Далее, на помощь приходит DNS over HTTPS или DNS over TLS. В новых релизах от Apple: macOS Big Sur и iOS 14 он уже включен по умолчанию. В Windows 10 Insider так же добавили поддержку. На Linux в systemd-resolved идет разработка. Более того, Firefox включил DNS over HTTPS по умолчанию для новых релизов. В Chromium есть возможность включить поддержку.

Глубокий анализ пакетов (Deep Packet Inspection, DPI) - здесь уже интереснее. Например, Ideco Selecta ISP, или Великий Китайский Фаервол. Данные инструменты могут не только обращать внимание на доменное имя, IP адрес, L4 протокол и порт, но и на другие нюансы протокола. Например на используемый TLS Сipher Suite для HTTPS. Или на размер первого, второго, третьего пакета в TLS Handshake. Вот такие инструменты могут достать SNI поле из TLS Client Hello сообщения, в котором содержится доменное имя (в нашем случае "example.com"). И если DPI увидит неугодный ресурс - отбросит пакет.
Инженеры-борцы за свободу и приватность в сети Интернет пошли дальше: Encrypted SNI (ESNI). В связке с DNS over HTTPS/TLS позволяет скрыть от DPI доменное имя ресурса, к которому вы получаете доступ. Поддерживает ли ваш браузер необходимый функционал? Проверить можно здесь. Firefox поддерживает. Chromium еще нет. Но ESNI заработает только, если создатели ресурса позаботились об этом, а это все еще экспериментальная функциональность. Поэтому, поддерживается не всеми. Хочется добавить, что не все DPI хороши как Великая Китайская Огненная Стена: при блокировке сайта navalny.com, использовали трюк с TCP Window Size, чтобы разделить SNI на несколько TCP cегментов. DPI, который использовался провайдерами, не умел собирать фрагментированные TCP сегменты — блокировка не сработала.
Ну и самое банальное. Если регистратором доменного имени выступает регистратор, на который могут "надавить" враги, то доменно имя у вас могут "отжать". Я про такие случаи "не читал, но осуждаю".

Итого

У вас не возникнет проблем, если:
на вашей ОС включен DNS over HTTPS (или over TLS, при условии использования внешнего независимого DNS сервера, например от Cloudflare);
и "example.com" использует CDN с поддержкой TLSv1.3 / ESNI;
и провайдер не заблокировал независимый DNS по IP адресу;
и провайдер не заблокировал пул IP адресов CDN, как это было в во время блокировки Telegram в РФ;
Если что-то из вышеперечисленного не поддерживается на клиентской или серверной стороне, то скорее всего доступ прикроют использую DPI ПО — читаем дальше.

-------------
VPN и Proxy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_private_network
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_server

Все виды блокировок можно обойти с помощью VPN. Но могут заблокировать сам VPN. Для таких случаев придумали Tor (о нем речь пойдет ниже).
Решения расположены в порядке простоты их использования.
-------------

WARP+ https://1.1.1.1/

Закрытый бесплатный VPN от Cloudflare на основе протокола Wireguard. Рекламы нет, поэтому поместил в этот список.
https://blog.cloudflare.com/announcing-warp-plus/

1.1.1.1 app

Протокол блокируется Великим Китайским Фаерволом.
Не поддерживается Linux. Но скоро добавят.
Лимиты по объему передаваемых данных.
Удобство использования.
Нет рекламы в бесплатной версии.
Wireguard поддерживает роуминг. Это позволяет прозрачно и незаметно для пользователя сменять сети (Wi-Fi, LTE, 3G).

-------------
RiseUP
https://riseup.net/
http://vww6ybal4bd7szmgncyruucpgfkqahzddi37ktceo3ah7ngmcopnpyyd.onion/index.en.html

Открытое VPN приложение на базе протокола OpenVPN. Предоставляет бесплатно свои сервера. Доступно для Android, Linux, Windows, macOS. Ссылки на приложения доступны на официальном сайте.

RiseUp, Android

Протокол блокируется Великим Китайским Фаерволом.
Не поддерживается iOS.
Удобство использования.
Открытый код.
Нету лимитов по объемам передаваемых данных.
Есть лимиты по скорости. Для просмотра видео с "example.com" хватит.


-------------
TouchVPN https://touchvpn.net/

Это удобное расширение для браузера для настройки прокси-серверов. Расположение (страну) прокси-сервера можно выбрать в настройках.
TouchVPN on chrome
Дополнение работает только в браузерах на Desktop-системах. Но есть приложения под мобильные платформы, но уже с рекламой.
Доступно в Firefox и Chrome.

-------------
VpnGate https://www.vpngate.net/en/

Cписок бесплатных OpenVPN серверов, которые хостятся в основном США и Японии.
Будет работать с любым OpenVPN клиентом на любой операционной системе.
Протокол блокируется Великим Китайским Фаерволом.
OpenVPN клиенты есть для всех популярных операционных систем.
Тяжело в использовании неопытными пользователями, необходимо скачивать конфигурацию самостоятельно. Нужно скачать конфигурационный файл с сайта и выбрать его в приложении: ,
Итого

Попробуйте описанные выше продукты. Скорее всего они вам помогут. Если вам не хватает пропускной способности, а денег много тратить не хочется, можно развернуть свой VPN сервер в сети. Это сложнее, но дешевле (от 3 евро в месяц), если VPN вы собираетесь пользоваться много.
-------------
Tor и Ко

Вражеские агенты узнали о том, что люди могут получить доступ к информации. VPN начали блокировать DPI инструментами.
Не отчаивайтесь, мы не первые. Многие страны уже прошли этот этап. Великий Китайский Фаервол уже давно умеет и практикует.

Tor
https://torporject.org/
https://bridges.torproject.org/

Если вас интересует не только возможность получать доступ к Интернет ресурсам, но и еще делать это анонимно, то вам нужен Tor. В обещания VPN провайдеров о том, что они не хранят логи доступа или не начнут дампить пакеты по требованию вражеских агентов, я не верю. Хотя анонимность Tor тоже под вопросом, если узлы сети скомпроментированы.
Наверняка вы уже слышали о этой сети. И о ее архитектуре, где каждый пакет шифруется несколько раз, а затем расшифровывается на промежуточных сетевых узлах. Это похоже на разворачивании луковицы, поэтому и называется onion (лук)-network. В Беларуси Tor официально заблокирован с 2016 года, но из-за архитектуры, он продолжает работать через Bridges. Конечно враг может пойти дальше и усложнить процесс использования даже Bridges. Но все каналы перекрыть не получится.

Orbot, Android

А еще через сеть Tor доступен Darknet. А это что-то реально свободное и неподконтрольное никому. Но организовано неудобно.
Obfs4 позволяет обходить даже Великий Китайский Фаервол.
Открытый код.
Поддерживается всеми популярными операционными системами, в том числе мобильными.
Проект развивается давно, поэтому приложения удобные и не вызывают трудностей при использовании.
Работает медленнее VPN из-за луковичной архитектуры сети.
Работает в виде прозрачного прокси или браузера на всех ОС.

-------------
Psiphon https://psiphon.ca/

Разработан в университете города Торонто. Для туннелирования используется обфусцированный SSH туннель. Но было найдено упоминание о использовании L2TP/IPsec для VPN на Windows. использовался во время блокировок Телеграм в Иране во время протестов конца 2017 начала 2018 года.
Psiphon App, Android
Позволяет обходить Великий Китайский Фаервол.
Открытый код.
Поддерживается только на Android, iOS, Windows.
Не сохраняет анонимность.

-------------
Lantern
https://getlantern.org/en_US/index.html

Проект проспонсирован правительством США и может использовать других участников сети для проксирования (если разрешено). Если узлов, разрешающих проксирование, нет, то ПО использует резервные (fallback) прокси сервера, предоставленные самим проектом.

Lattern, Android

Позволяет обходить Великий Китайский Фаервол в Pro версии. Но в бесплатной версии можно получить список Fallback Proxies IP и заблокировать.
Поддерживается всеми популярными операционными системами, в том числе мобильными.
Открытый код.
Не сохраняет анонимность. Прямо так в соглашении прописано, что могут продавать ваши логи.
Если же вы, например, в Китае, то бесплатная версия может не сработать. Нужно покупать подписку. По подписке доступны другие сервера, которые сложнее достать цензору.


-------------
Shadowsocks
https://shadowsocks.org/

От Китайских разработчиков с любовью. Кто, как не инженеры из страны с Великим Фаерволом, может с этим еще бороться эффективнее? В первозданном виде Shadowsocks блокируется Великим Китайским Фаерволом через Active Probing. Но можно подключить другие транспорты, например, Obfs4, который используется сетью Tor. В таком случае нам кран не перекроют.
Shadowsocks, Android

Obfs4 позволяет обходить даже Великий Китайский Фаервол.
Открытый код.
UX для опытных пользоавтелей.
Публичных бесплатных серверов я не видел. Но можно очень просто развернуть свой сервер на Linode.
Поддерживается на всех популярных операционных системах, в том числе на мобильных.


-------------
Hotspotshield
https://www.hotspotshield.com/

Проприетарное VPN приложение которое использует закрытый протокол Catapult Hydra. Согласно блогу компании, умеет обходить Китайский Фаервол. Приложение платное. В бесплатной версии навязчивая реклама. Но если ничего больше не работает, стоит попробовать.
Hotspotshield App, Android
Обходит Китайский Фаервол.
Есть клиенты под все популярные ОС.
Реклама в бесплатной версии.
Закрытый протокол.
Не сохраняет анонимность.

Итого
Tor поможет в большинстве случаев.


-------------
Mesh-сети mesh-network
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesh_networking

Отлично, разобрались с Tor. А что если вражески-настроенные агенты пошли дальше. Они отключили GSM сеть. Или вообще отключили Интертнет.
В таком случае подойдут mesh-сети. В нашем случае нас интересуют mesh-сети, которые строятся с помощью Bluetoothи Wi-Fi Direct. Используя эти технологии, можно построить mesh-сети между мобильными устройствами: все узлы сети соединяются с соседними узлами в радиусе доступности радиосигнала и помогают передавать пакеты до адресата.

Mesh-сети явление не новое. Глоток популярности они получили во время протестов в Ираке и Гонконге в 2014 году благодаря приложения Firechat (уже не поддерживается).

Для передачи текстовых сообщений и изображений используются беспроводные сети Bluetooth и Wi-Fi, устройства с установленным клиентом могут обнаруживать друг друга в радиусе до 60 метров. Каждое устройство с клиентом фактически становится ретранслятором для других устройств с этой программой, организуя распределенную mesh-сеть.

Вас могут отследить, если вы подключены к GSM сети. Вы уменьшаете возможности отследить вас если вы:
- переведете телефон в режим "полета"
- вытащите сим-карту из телефона
- и присоединитесь к Bluetooth mesh-сети.

ПО - Mesh-сети:

Briar мессенджер
https://briarproject.org/

Этот проект с открытым кодом разработан для активистов, журналистов и других, кто нуждается в безопасном и надежном виде коммуникации. Если сеть Интернет недоступна, Briar может синхронизировать сообщения через Bluetooth или Wi-Fi. Если сеть Интернет доступна, сообщения синхронизируются через сеть Интернет - Tor сеть.

Briar Network Overview
Не поддерживает iOS. Только Android. Со временем доработают.
Открытый код.
Можно вести свой микроблог, полезная вещь, если нужно оповестить большую аудиторию о чем-то важном.
Можно добавлять контакты по ссылке, которая представляет собой публичный ключ.

Используя мессенджеры на основе mesh-сетей можно наладить связь при массовых скоплениях людей без сети Интернет. Надо побудить многих людкй установить приложение. функциональность Briar: возможность добавлять контакты через считывание QR кодов, индикаторы доступных каналов связи, возможность добавлять контакты с помощью ссылок, т.е не надо быть в радиусе-действия Bluetooth.

Хочу отметить, что мои коллеги предупредили, что сотни WiFi 2.4 GHz на небольшой площади из-за Beacon могут "нашуметь" настолько, что на данной частоте будет невозможно поддерживать связь.

Заключение
Вражеские силы могут пойти дальше. Если начнут глушить не только GSM, а 2.4ГГц или 5ГГц, на котором работает Wi-Fi и Bluetooth, то здесь уже ничего не поделаешь.
антиблокинг DPI блокировка цензура в интернете цензура в сети Сетевые технологии


-------------------------------------------------------
Приложения Android для протестов : для обхода блокировок интернета и для связи
Telegram: https://telegram.org/

Bitmask: https://f-droid.org/en/packages/se.leap.bitmaskclient/

Orbot: https://f-droid.org/packages/org.torproject.android/

Psiphon: https://psiphon.ca/

Lantern: https://getlantern.org/en_US/index.html

SSVPN: https://github.com/bannedbook/ssvpn

Delta Chat: https://f-droid.org/en/packages/com.b44t.messenge

Conversations: https://f-droid.org/en/packages/eu.siacs.conversations/

OpenVPN: https://f-droid.org/en/packages/de.blinkt.openvpn/

WireGuard: https://f-droid.org/en/packages/com.wireguard.android/

bluechat : https://f-droid.org/en/packages/com.alexkang.bluechat/

Serval Mesh: https://f-droid.org/en/packages/org.servalproject/

Meshenger: https://f-droid.org/en/packages/d.d.meshenge

F-Droid: https://f-droid.org/en/

Ripple: https://f-droid.org/en/packages/info.guardianproject.ripple/

Autowipe: https://forum.xda-developers.com/showthread.php?t=717469
----------------------------------------------------


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submitted by DarkRedFist to True_Russia [link] [comments]


2020.08.01 11:04 removalbot 08-01 09:04 - '[link] / [link] / [link] / [link] / [link] / [link] / [link] / [link] / [link] / [link] / [link] / Further reading: / TikTok Admits It Suppressed Videos by Disabled, Queer, and Fat Creators. [link] / TikTok has been a...' by /u/Downvote_Me_Nerds removed from /r/worldnews within 0-8min

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Further reading:
TikTok Admits It Suppressed Videos by Disabled, Queer, and Fat Creators. [link]12
TikTok has been accused of secretly gathering "vast quantities" of user data and sending it to servers in China. [link]13
TikTok is paying the FTC a fine of $5.7 million for collecting the data of kids under 13. [link]14
TikTok censors all reference to the Hong Kong protests. [link]15
TikTok has had children as young as 8 targeted by sexual predators and Police are urging parents to check the app privacy settings. [link]16
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TikTok's privacy page admits to collecting as much data as possible, from meta data, GPS location, and pulls all contact information on someone's Facebook and instagram (if connected) and phone, while allowing themselves to use this data for whatever they want.
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TikTok has been labeled a "threat to national security" by the USA government.
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TikTok is ban from US Navy mobile devices, as it's been declared a cybersecurity threat.
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TikTok had vulnerabilities as recent as last month, which allowed attackers to gain control of users accounts to upload videos or view private videos, while a separate flaw allowed attackers to retrieve personal information from TikTok user accounts through the company’s website.
[link]23
you should be ashamed of your blatant spreading of misinformation in defence of a democidal totalitarian regime.
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Author: Downvote_Me_Nerds
1: www.wa**ingtonpost.co*/technolo**/2019*02**7/us**ove**ment-*in*d-app-n**-*n**n*tiktok-*illion*ill**ally-collect*ng*c**l***ns-da*a/ 2: w*w.ab*.net.a*/*ews/2019-*3-*1*t*ktok-ap****il*-priv*cy-viol*tion-m*st-dow****ded-*pps-*outu****0862462 3: www.t*e***r**a*.com/tec**o*ogy/2019/feb*2*/tik*ok-vid*o-s*aring-app*fin*d*for*c*ll*ction-of-*hild*e**-dat* 4: w*w.bb**c*m/n*ws/tech*ol*gy*53*18077 5: ww*.bus*n*ssinsider.com*au*us-gove**men*-ag*n**e*-have*b*nn**-tik*ok-a*p-2020-2?r=U**a*p;IR** 6: w**.smh.c*m.au*t*chnology/tikto*-s**at*-*oll*cti*n-*-w*rr***egar*les*-**-national*ty-20200*08-p*5a4v.ht** 7: **w.boredp**d*.*om**ik-*ok*re*e*se-en**n*ere*-**ta*i**ormation*collect**g/?utm_so*rce=goog*e&*utm_*edium*orga*i*&am*;utm*campaign=o*g*nic 8: www.*or*e**com*s*tes*za*doffman/2020/06/**/war**ng-*pple*su*den*y*catche*-tikt*k-secretly-spyin*-on*mi*l*ons-of-ip*one-us*r***7**b2**4**ef 9: *ww.forb**.com/s**e*/zakd*ffma*/2020/*7**1/a*on*mo*s-target*-tik*ok-d***te-*his*c*in*se***yware-now/#2ee*31ea3*cc 10: w**.inde*e*den*.co*u*/li*e-style/ga*gets**n*-t*ch*n*w*/tik*ok*chi*a*d**a-privacy-*awsui*-by*edance-a**3*426.html 11: *heconversation.com*china*c*u*d-b*-us**g-t*kt*k-to-s*y-on-**st*alia*s-b*t-b*nni*g*it-is***a-*im*le-fi*-1421** 12: slate.*om/*ech*ol**y/2019/12/t**t*k-dis*ble*-u*e*s-v*d*os-suppres****html 13: www.bbc.*o**ne**/busin**s-5064011* 14: www.vo*.co*/t*e-*oo**/*019**/*8/182449*6/tiktok-c*il*r*n-pr*v*cy-da*a-*t*-se*tlem*nt 15: ww***a**ing*onp*st*c*m/*echn*lo*y/2019/0*/15/t*ktoks-**ij*ng-r*ots-fue*-cen**rshi*-s*s*icion-i*-b*ilds*h*g*-*s-*ud**nce/?*oredirect=on 16: *e*cache.go*gl*userco*tent.**m/*e*r**?ie=U*F*8&*mp;amp;client=ms-a**roid*g*o*l*&s*ur*e=an**oid-b**ws*r&a*p;amp;q=cache:*ttp**%2F**Fw**.scotsman.com%2F**festyle-*-1***9**Ftikto*-*rivacy*set**ngs-*ve*y*hi*g**arent*-need-*o-know-*bo*t*the-vid**-*pp*1-*8*261* 17: ww*.da**ymai*.*o.u****ienc**ech/*rticle-*69*67*/P*eda*ors**roomin**chil*ren-*oung*eight-p*p*lar*live-str*ami**-apps.html 18: ww*.t***o*.*o*/legal/*rivacy*policy?lang*e* 19: m*yo*tube.com/wa*c*?v=rU0z**KH**8 20: m.youtube.c*m/watch***6j*Je**9W*8 21: www.n*times.co**2*19/11/*1*t**h*olo*y*tikt*k-*a*i*nal-secur*ty-re*iew.htm* 22: w****h**uardian.co*/*ec*nolog*/201*/dec/21/u*-navy*bans-tiktok-from-m*bile-*ev***s-s****g*i*s-a-cy*e*s*curity*t*reat 23: www*nytimes*com*2020/0*/08/tec*no**gy/**kto*-*ecur*ty-f**ws.ht**
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2020.07.30 20:39 kevbr Flask, Falcon, or DRF for Python API

Hey everyone,
I know this type of question gets asked a lot, but I thought it's been a while since the last one and I figured it could use a refreshed answer.
Does anyone have any suggestions on which framework kto use for building a Python API? I understand a lot of it comes down to personal preference, but there has to be some objective measurements on performance, etc.
Not building any type of front-end, by the way. Simply building a REST API that hooks up to a DB and a few other external data sources.
Thanks in advance! Excited to read what the fellow pythonians think
submitted by kevbr to Python [link] [comments]


2020.07.27 09:02 Cicero1982 Your Pre Market Brief for 07/27/2020

Pre Market Brief for Monday July 27th 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Updated as of 3:00 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Friday 07/24/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Monday July 27th 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are Eastern)
News Heading into Monday July 27th 2020
NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH. THE TIME STAMPS ON THE FOLLOWING ARTICLES MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB. THE CREATOR OF THIS THREAD COMPILED THE FOLLOWING IN A QUICK MANNER AND DOES NOT ATTEST TO THE VERACITY OF THE INFORMATION BELOW. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR VETTING YOUR OWN SOURCES AND DOING YOUR OWN DD.
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of these headlines before trading.
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2020.07.24 23:17 noentic Unusual Option Activity July 24 - PHM, AUY, SHLL (C), AMD (C)

As always you can find the rest of the post at www.noeticoptions.com
Context -
The stock market has ended the week in negative territory. The S&P 500 fell -0.6%, DJIA -0.7%, and the Nasdaq fell -0.9% and the Russell 2000 -1.5%. Ten of the 11 S&P Sectors declined today with health care (-1.1%) and information technology (-1.1%) as the only sectors decline more than one percent. The tech sector was down as much as 2.7% intraday. Intel (-16.2%) announced a six-month delay in its next generation 7nm chip technology. The unexpected news led AMD (+16.5%), one of yesterday’s picks, to have a significant rise in price. New home sales surged 13.8% m/m in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 776,000 (consensus was 680,000).
Recap -
USFD 20.96 0,( 0%)
AMD 69.4 +9.83,(+16.5%)
NLOK 20.355 -0.765,( -3.62%)
KTOS 19.44 +1.63,(+9.15%)
You can find yesterday's post here. For a negative day on the SPY the picks from yesterday performed quite well with the exception of NLOK.
Today’s Option Activity Fast Facts -
CBOE Put/Call Ratio -
Highest Multiple Over Daily Average - EHTH with 24 x the ADV of 1411. There were 19112 calls and 15274 puts.
Ticker with Most Contracts - AMD with 1437710 contracts traded today with an AVD of 419216. There were 1019355 calls and 418355 puts.
Largest Put / Call Ratio - IGV with a 53.44 P/C ratio. There were 15124 puts and 283 calls.
Largest Call / Put Ratio - GFI with a 123.32 C/P ratio. There were 10852 calls and 88 puts.
\Stocks must be >$6, Highest Multiple must have >1k ADV, Largest ratios must have an option volume >10k*
MOMENTUM UNUSUAL OPTION ACTIVITY -
First Momentum Stock Pick -
Ticker : PHM 42.62 +1.33,(+3.22%) Earnings : 2020-10-27
Name : PulteGroup, Inc.
Industry : Homebuilding, Sector : Consumer Durables
Option Information -
Today’s Option Volume: 31164, OptionOI: 41665
Multiple of ADV: 18, ADV: 1753
Total Calls: 29513, Total Puts: 1651
Calls at Ask: 40.9%, Calls at Bid: 33.8%
Puts at Ask: 41.0%, Puts at Bid: 34.0%
C/P Ratio: 17.9
Notable Strikes :
AUG 21 ’20 45C had 6.23k VLM with 174 OI
AUG 21 ’20 48C had 19.1k VLM with 0 OI
News :
2020-07-23 07:03:03 - PulteGroup profit beats as low mortgage rates, preference for suburbs boost sales
U.S. homebuilder PulteGroup Inc reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit on Thursday, as low mortgage rates and a shift towards suburbs brought on by the coronavirus pandemic encouraged more Americans to buy a house.
2020-07-23 06:34:20 - PulteGroup EPS beats by $0.29, beats on revenue (NYSE:PHM)
PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.15 beats by $0.29; GAAP EPS of $1.29 beats by $0.41. Revenue of $2.59B (+4.0% Y/Y) beats by $60M. New orders U
Potential Sympathy Stocks for PHM
KBH 33.21 +0.12,(+0.36%) & MDC 40.29 +-0.82,(+-1.99%)
DHI 63.75 +-0.13,(+-0.2%) & LEN.B 52.22 +-0.05,(+-0.1%)
My Impression :
The increase in calls is related to the better than expected earnings. In my experience, formal upgrades will follow and the stock will rise. I’ll be looking to buy some shares in this stock on Monday, if I can get in early enough before the analyst upgrades. Otherwise, the option data looks quite bullish.
submitted by noentic to u/noentic [link] [comments]


2020.07.24 06:30 noentic Unusual Option Activity July 23 - KTOS, NLOK, AMD(C), USFD(C)

As always you can find the rest of the post at www.noeticoptions.com
Context -
The S&P 500 fell 1.2% today; there was noticeable selling in the mega-cap stocks during the afternoon. The Nasdaq fell 2.3% while the Russell 2000 ended flat. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower with information technology declining the most at -2.6%, followed by consumer discretionary (-2.0%) and communication services (-2.0%). MSFT closed -4.4%, with TSLA ending down -5% despite smashing earnings yesterday. Goldman Sachs doubled down on its recommendation to avoid Apple due to the view that its recent surge is not sustainable. Weekly jobless claims increased by 109,000 to 1.416 million – the consensus was 1.285 million. In other news, China’s Global Times editor tweeted that China will likely announce countermeasures on Friday if they are forced to close the consulate in Houston. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the GOP unemployment benefit plan would be based on a 70% wage replacement.
Recap -
ITCI 21.36 -0.54,( -2.47%)
EQH 20.59 +0.23,(+1.13%)
AG 13.33 -0.72,( -5.12%)
KTOS 17.81 -0.04,( -0.22%)
You can find yesterday's post here. Today was a mixed bag as expected, with the market seeing a decrease. If you have been paying attention to the Option’s Activity Fast Facts, you’ll have noticed that SLV was the most traded contract July 21st, July 22nd, and now today. I bought SLV yesterday at 20.63. KTOS was mentioned yesterday, and will again be featured as a momentum pick. KTOS was a Jon Najarian pick today. That’s two weeks in a row one of the momentum picks were called a day before his.
Today’s Option Activity Fast Facts -
CBOE Put/Call Ratio - 0.75, VIX: (24.72, +0.40, +1.6%)
Highest Multiple Over Daily Average - MAT with 41 x the ADV of 1366. There were 50384 calls and 5554 puts.
Ticker with Most Contracts - SLV with 1154295 contracts traded today with an AVD of 402625. There were 889629 calls and 264666 puts.
Largest Put / Call Ratio - EWH with a 286.02 P/C ratio. There were 12585 puts and 44 calls.
Largest Call / Put Ratio - KTOS with a 84.1 C/P ratio. There were 48608 calls and 578 puts.
\Stocks must be >$6, Highest Multiple must have >1k ADV, Largest ratios must have an option volume >10k*
MOMENTUM UNUSUAL OPTION ACTIVITY -
First Momentum Stock Pick -
Ticker : KTOS 17.81 -0.04,( -0.22%) Earnings : 2020-07-30
Name : Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
Industry : Aerospace & Defense, Sector : Electronic Technology
Option Information -
Today’s Option Volume: 49186, OptionOI: 31181
Multiple of ADV: 32, ADV: 1551
Total Calls: 48608, Total Puts: 578
Calls at Ask: 44.2%, Calls at Bid: 37.4%
Puts at Ask: 69.5%, Puts at Bid: 14.6%
C/P Ratio: 84.1
Notable Strikes :
Sorry, no strikes today. I got home from work too late and now the data option chain data from yesterday is gone on my broker.
News :
No news.
Potential Sympathy Stocks for KTOS
LMT 387.62 +-6.46,(+-1.64%) & BA 176.45 +-3.34,(+-1.86%)
GD 151.01 +-0.52,(+-0.34%) & NOC 313.06 +-2.94,(+-0.93%)
My Impression :
In my opinion, this is likely a bet on rising China and US tensions. There may have been an increase in volume today due to this being one of Jon Najarian’s picks today.
Second Momentum Stock Pick -
Ticker : NLOK 21.12 +0.42,(+2.03%) Earnings : 2020-08-06
Name : NortonLifeLock, Inc.
Industry : Packaged Software, Sector : Technology Services
Option Information -
Today’s Option Volume: 33507, OptionOI: 143161
Multiple of ADV: 15, ADV: 2208
Total Calls: 32283, Total Puts: 1224
Calls at Ask: 50.1%, Calls at Bid: 31.2%
Puts at Ask: 39.6%, Puts at Bid: 33.2%
C/P Ratio: 26.4
Notable Strikes :
Sorry, no strikes today. I got home from work too late and now the data option chain data from yesterday is gone on my broker.
News :
No news that I can find.
Potential Sympathy Stocks for NLOK
PING 32.85 +-1,(+-2.95%) & PFSW 6.72 +0,(+0%)
PFPT 120.21 +-2.51,(+-2.04%) & PLUS 75.79 +-0.73,(+-0.95%)
My Impression :
I am not sure why this spiked. The call at ask %, the multiple of ADV and C/P ratio are all very bullish. I’ll have to research this more tomorrow morning.
CLASSIC UNUSUAL OPTION ACTIVITY -
First Classic UOA Stock Pick -
Ticker : AMD 59.57 -2.22,( -3.59%), Earnings : 2020-07-28
Name : Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Sector : Electronic Technology, Industry : Semiconductors
Option Information :
2020-07-31 67.0 C - 2,000 @ 1.60 were traded at 10:49 as a BLOCK Spot Price: 61.88
2020-07-31 67.0 C - 2,000 @ 1.59 were traded at 10:07 as a BLOCK Spot Price: 61.51
News :
2020-07-23 20:52:16 - Intel's Manufacturing Setback Must Be Music to AMD and TSMC's Ears
Potential Sympathy Stocks for AMD
INTC 60.4 +-0.65,(+-1.06%) & NVDA 405.19 +-12.36,(+-2.96%)
MCHP 101.53 +-2.96,(+-2.83%) & TXN 129.04 +-3.49,(+-2.63%)
Second Classic UOA Stock Pick -
Ticker : USFD 20.96 -0.72,( -3.32%), Earnings : 2020-08-04
Name : US Foods Holding Corp.
Sector : Distribution Services, Industry : Food Distributors
Option Information :
2020-08-21 22.5 C - 1,397 @ 1.05 were traded at 14:51 as a BLOCK Spot Price: 20.78
2020-08-21 22.5 C - 1,397 @ 1.05 were traded at 14:51 as a BLOCK Spot Price: 20.78
News :
2020-07-07 12 - US Foods to Announce Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 Financial Results on August 4, 2020
ROSEMONT, Ill.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--US Foods Holding Corp. (NYSE: USFD) will host a live conference call and webcast to discuss second quarter fiscal 2020 results on Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 10 a.m. CDT. The conference call can be accessed live over the phone by dialing (844) 292-0976; the conference ID number is 3295176. Listeners are asked to please dial in 10 minutes prior to the call start time and provide the conference ID number to be connected. A replay will be available after the call be
2020-06-18 09 - US Foods to Donate $250,000 of Food to the Greater Chicago Food Depository
ROSEMONT, Ill.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--US Foods Holding Corp. (NYSE: USFD), a leading foodservice distributor, today announced it is donating approximately $250,000 of food to help the Greater Chicago Food Depository, Chicago’s food bank, bring pop-up food pantries to communities of color on Chicago’s South and West Sides, which have been disproportionately affected by COVID-19, longtime food insecurity and the recent civil unrest. “In this unprecedented time, we know too many Chicago families are st
Potential Sympathy Stocks for USFD
MYT 0.51 +-0.018,(+-3.41%) & RYCE 6.59 +-0.17,(+-2.51%)
USFD 20.96 +-0.72,(+-3.32%) & WDRP 0.0016 +0,(+0%)
Upcoming Events for Next Trading Day -
Here you can find a full list of tomorrow's events with explanations.
Thanks for reading.
DISCLAIMER – These are my observations that I have made at the end of each day and trades that I am considering placing or watching. I am not responsible for your financial losses if you follow any of these trades. As always, do your due diligence.
Company Summary : KTOS
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. engages in the provision of technology systems to the U.S. Department of Defense. It operates through the following segments: Kratos Government Solutions and Unmanned Systems. The Kratos Government Solutions segment includes microwave electronic products, satellite communications, modular systems, and rocket support operating. The Unmanned Systems segment consists of unmanned aerial system and unmanned ground & seaborne system businesses. The company was founded on December 19, 1994 and is headquartered in San Diego, CA.
Company Summary : NLOK
NortonLifeLock, Inc. engages in the provision of security, storage, and systems management solutions. It operates through Enterprise Security and Consumer Digital Safety segments. The Enterprise Security segment focuses on the provision of solutions to protect organizations so they can securely conduct business while leveraging new platforms and data. The Consumer Digital Safety segment provides solutions to protect information, devices, networks and the identities of consumers. The company was founded by Gary Hendrix in April 1982 and is headquartered in Mountain View, CA.
Company Summary : AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. engages in the provision of semiconductor businesses. It operates through the following segments: Computing & Graphics, and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom. The Computing and Graphics segment includes desktop and notebook processors and chipsets, discrete and integrated graphics processing units, data center and professional GPUs and development services. The Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment includes server and embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip products, development services and technology for game consoles. The company was founded by W. J. Sanders III on May 1, 1969 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.
Company Summary : USFD
US Foods Holding Corp. operates as a foodservice distributor. Its products include frozen and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers throughout the U.S. The company offers services under brands Chef's Line, del Pasado, Glenview Farms, Cattleman's Selection, Cross Valley Farms, Harbor Banks, Hilltop Hearth, Devonshire, and Metro Deli. The company is headquartered in Rosemont, IL.
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2020.07.20 00:41 pothkan Koronawątek

Wątek jest kontynuacją poprzednich (ostatni). Jeśli zadaliście pytanie w tamtym temacie, a nie otrzymaliście na nie odpowiedzi, możecie ponowić tutaj.
Wszelkie pytania, spostrzeżenia i aktualności dotyczące pandemii koronawirusa SARS-Cov2 starajcie się wrzucać w tym temacie. Będziemy starali się uaktualniać ten post o najważniejsze wydarzenia i informacje. Jeżeli macie jakieś propozycje, dajcie znać.

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#KryjRyj

W związku z nakazem zakrywania ust i nosa (nadal obowiązującym wewnątrz!), przypominamy posty w naszej akcji:
Infografika oryginalny post Wyniki ankiety W poszukiwaniu maseczki
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2020.07.15 21:50 postmaster_ru Наука о данных: как отделить кажущееся от реальности

Наука о данных: как отделить кажущееся от реальности
Несколько лет назад ученые забили тревогу: от бега умирают, говорили им данные. К вопросу приложили типичные методы data science — и оказалось, что все куда интереснее. Вместе с онлайн-школой SkillFactory попробовали разобраться, как именно эти методы позволяют яснее увидеть мир вокруг нас.
В последние годы каждому из нас набила мозоль на языке (а то и на ушах) фраза «корреляция не означает причинно-следственной связи». Результаты почти каждого исследования готов оспорить любой совершеннолетний с аккаунтом во «Вконтакте». Причина этого не только в эффекте Даннинга-Крюгера, но и во вполне настоящей проблеме: данных вокруг нас становится слишком много. А если данных много, то почти всегда можно «подкрутить» интерпретирующие эти данные модели и получить – да почти все, что вашей душе угодно.
Какая этому разумная альтернатива? Ну, можно пройти соответствующий учебный курс по data science и начать во всем разбираться самому – вооружившись знаниями о том, как именно следует корректно работать с данными, чтобы извлекать из них не то, что ожидают другие, а то, что до сих пор никому не давалось – с помощью машинного обучения и ряда других подходов науки о данных. Но чтобы вполне понять, что это дает, стоит сперва разобраться с тем, что именно методы, излагаемые в рамках такого курса, дают тем, кто их окончил.
Если бы это касалось только абстрактных научных споров, то было бы неприятно, но не смертельно. Но есть и куда более серьезные случаи, причем такие, где без корректного применения data science здравый смысл мог бы никогда и не победить. Сегодня мы расскажем именно о таком случае.

Бег к смерти?

В 2012 году англоязычный мир встряхнула довольно сильная волна турбулентности. Сразу целый ряд исследователей заявил (и многочисленные поп-СМИ это подхватили), что практически любой бег интенсивнее предельно медленной трусцы на самом деле вреден для здоровья. Бег, утверждали такие авторы с цифрами замеров в руках, – это мощная нагрузка на сердце и сосуды, причем такая мощная, какую не получить при банальном офисном стрессе – да и вообще сложно получить обычному человеку. Даже при самом интенсивном обычном стрессе заметно поднять пульс до 150 сложно, в то время как для бега это несложно.
Более того: подсчеты числа бляшек в сердцах мужчин-марафонцев показали, что их заметно больше, чем у небегающих сверстников. Наука доказала, что бег вреден – примерно в такой стилистике писали тогда в самых разных местах.
Смерть в результате спортивных нагрузок случается, но чрезвычайно редко и лишь при особых условиях. Миклош Фехер, венгерский футболист, погиб в 25 лет прямо на поле из-за гипертрофической кардиомиопатии — обусловленной генетическим дефектом в синтезе белков сердечной мышцы / ©Wikimedia Commons
Влияние таких публикаций на людей не заставило себя ждать. В 2013 году до конца беговых дистанций добежало 19 миллионов американцев, а в 2016 году – меньше 17 миллионов. Запомним эти цифры.
Именно здесь на арену вышли методы, типичные для data science, но не свойственные конкретным дисциплинам, изучавшим риски бегунов на протяжении их жизни. Наука о данных не пытается априорно взять ту или иную предполагаемую причинно-следственную связь – например, предположение, что большее количество бляшек в сердце приведет к большей опасности смерти. Она просто берет наборы данных и анализирует все возможные математические и статистические связи между ними.
Как мы уже писали в нашем предыдущем тексте «Машинное обучение: не важно почему, важен результат», иногда корректный результат можно быстро получить только отказавшись от всех заранее выдвинутых предположений об интерпретации данных – и без навязанных ими идей.
Как раз в таком стиле была выдержана большая обзорная работа 2017 года. Она не затрагивала состояние конкретно сердца или любых других подсистем организма бегунов – лишь сравнивала время, которое они тратят на бег, и их среднюю ожидаемую продолжительность жизни.

Или к жизни?

При первом рассмотрении результаты оказались просто блестящими для бегунов – настолько блестящими, что стало понятно: они нуждаются в корректировке. Средняя вероятность смерти в любой заданный отрезок времени у бегуна (под ними понимались бегавшие регулярно, не менее нескольких раз в неделю) была ниже, чем у небегуна того же пола и возраста на 30-45%. Для тех, кто был постарше, разница была сильнее, ближе к 45%, для тех, кто младше – слабее, ближе к 30%.
Однако из этого получался абсурдный результат: выходило, что бег в состоянии чуть ли не в полтора раза уронить вероятность умереть. Стало ясно, что данные нуждаются в корректировке, в том числе по методу линейной регрессии – весьма распространенного метода в data science.
Коэффициенты линейной регрессии показывают скорость изменения зависимой переменной по данному фактору, при фиксированных остальных факторах (в линейной модели эта скорость постоянна). В ее рамках имеется (в норме) одна зависимая переменная и несколько независимых.
Например, если мы хотим оценить связь часов ожидаемой продолжительности жизни человека – бегуна или небегуна – то зависимой переменной в конечном счете будет продолжительность жизни, а вот независимой может быть и число часов, которое он бегает в неделю, и его приверженность к курению или алкоголю, и его вес или еще какие-то факторы.
Самая левая часть графика показывает вероятность смерти для небегунов. Правее лежат пять групп бегунов. Слева направо: те, что тратит на бег менее 51 минуты, от 51 до 80 минут, от 81 до 119 минут, от 120 до 175 минут, и более 176 минут в неделю. График вверху показывает вероятность смерти от всех причин, внизу — от сердечно-сосудистых заболеваний / ©Duck-chul Lee et al.
Оказалось – и это трудно назвать неожиданным – что бегуны реже курят и меньше пьют, чем люди того же пола и возраста в целом, да и масса тела у них ниже, чем у других. Между тем, все эти параметры, разумеется, также снижают риск смерти в любой момент времени, поэтому и результаты тех, кто бегал, оказались завышены. Учтя это, удалось выяснить: пока человек бегает, его вероятность смерти до исчерпания лет средней ожидаемой продолжительности жизни (вероятность преждевременной смерти) ниже, чем у небегающих на 25-40% (опять с некоторым сдвигом в сторону пожилого возраста).
При этом те, кто просто бегал, имели среднее снижение вероятности преждевременной (относительно остальной популяции) смерти в среднем на 30%, а те, кто в дополнение к бегу серьезно занимался силовыми упражнениями – имел вероятность смерти, сниженную на 42%. Интересно, что те, кто занимался другими видами физической активности, но без бега, показывали снижение вероятности преждевременной смерти лишь на 12%. Выходит, «бег к смерти» по факту удлиняет жизнь сильнее иных видов упражнений.

Как отделить реальное удлинение жизни от иллюзии

И тем не менее, даже после линейной регрессии цифра оказалась очень большой. Возник вопрос: нет ли здесь смешения корреляции (много бега – ниже вероятность смерти) с причинно-следственной связью? То есть не может ли быть так, что люди бегают потому, что их сердце и сосуды здоровее, чем у тех, кто не бегает? А те бы и рады бегать, но не могут?
Чтобы вполне точно ответить на этот вопрос, понадобилось привлечь уже совсем иные методы. Данные разбили по группам, чтобы проще было выявить, как средняя ожидаемая продолжительность жизни меняется среди тех, кто бегает мало, средне и много.
Кроме того, в отдельные группы выделили бегунов с хроническими заболеваниями и здоровых. В «контрольной группе» небегунов также выделили «хроников» и здоровых. Точно так же были учтены отдельно группы курящих, лиц с избыточным весом. Группы выделили из довольно большой выборки, включающей 55 тысяч человек в возрасте от 18 до 100 лет.
Особенно неожиданным оказалось то, что даже люди, которые занялись бегом по указаниям врача и бегали менее десяти минут в день, показали заметное снижение смертности от всех причин, включая сердечно-сосудистые заболевания / ©Nutthaseth Van
По сути, здесь использовался кластерный анализ – сбор данных, содержащих информацию о выборке объектов с последующей процедурой упорядочивания объектов в сравнительно однородные группы, широко применяемый в data science. Его изучение входит в каждый учебный курс по этой дисциплине – и дает заметные преимущества в сравнении с анализом данных без его использования. Оценивать такие массивы данных «вручную» довольно сложно, а вот с использованием алгоритмов, разбивающих данные по легко сравнимым группам, оказалось намного проще.
На этот раз оказалось, что длительность жизни человека показывает прямую корреляцию со средним временем его бега в неделю. На каждый час такого перемещения в пространстве средняя ожидаемая продолжительность жизни росла примерно на семь часов. В среднем же бегуны, тратя по два часа в неделю, показали среднюю ожидаемую продолжительность жизни на 3,2 года дольше, чем небегуны.
При этом удлинение средней ожидаемой продолжительности при регулярном беге (относительно тех, кто не бегал) было примерно одинаковым и для людей с хроническими заболеваниями, и для тех, у кого их не было. Те же результаты выявились и для тех, кто курил, и для тех, у кого был избыточный вес. Все они, в сравнении с небегавшими, показали сходный прирост продолжительности жизни. Курящие бегуны-любители все еще жили меньше, чем некурящие – но вот некурящих небегунов они уже вполне обгоняли.
Попутно разбивка данных на группы позволила выявить еще пару важных моментов. Оказалось, что у бегуна падает вероятность гибели не только от сердечно-сосудистых заболеваний, но и от рака – второй по частоте причине смертности в современном мире, а во многих странах уже и первой. Причем вероятность рака падала равным образом и среди тех бегунов, у которых была повышенная масса тела, и среди тех, у кого она была нормальной.
Это делает сомнительным предположение «бегуны живут дольше, потому что бегать идут только здоровые». Будь это так, то у бегуна, еще не заболевшего раком и имеющего сходную массу тела с небегуном, должно быть примерно столько же шансов получить злокачественную опухоль. На практике, однако, даже бегуны-любители, тратившие на это занятие несколько часов в неделю, имели сниженную на 30% вероятность рака. Те, кто бегал с хорошим временем (условно их можно обозначить как «профессионалы») могли иметь вероятность рака на 50% ниже, чем у их сверстников того же пола.
На первый взгляд обычное копание в цифрах привело к однозначному выводу: смертность у бегунов ниже обычной и по сердечно-сосудистым заболеваниям, и по раку, причем это относится даже к тем, кто очень серьезно напрягает свое сердце при тренировках.
Из анализа данных получилось, что выгоды для здоровья не растут линейно: продолжительность жизни росла у тех, кто бегал до четырех часов в неделю – то есть, например, бегавшие два часа жили дольше тех, кто бегал час в неделю, и так далее. Но после достижения четырехчасового порога продолжительность жизни не изменялась. Но, что очень важно, она и не падала: то есть «бег к смерти» в общем случае – всего лишь миф. Статистически значимому числу людей »не удается» снизить продолжительность своей жизни, перенапрягаясь при беге.
https://preview.redd.it/v38akib2s2b51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ea0fc0b4e1441def674e9ba47c776493feeb8aa3
Почему так выходит, несмотря на более ранние работы кардиологов про большее число бляшек в сердцах марафонцев? Пока это вполне ясно: человек – исключительно сложная система. Возможно, ухудшая какой-то из формальных параметров здоровья сердца и сосудов, длительная беговая нагрузка улучшает какой-то иной, еще не обнаруженный. Но, с точки зрения data science, это и не важно. Важен результат.
Значимость этого «копания в данных» трудно переоценить. Снятие стигмы «бег вредит сердцу» позволит какому-то количеству людей бегать больше – и значит, прожить дольше. В среднем по всем возрастам примерно 5% населения США регулярно бегает по несколько часов в неделю. Если новое исследование увеличит эту цифру хотя бы вдвое – жители Штатов получат дополнительно десятки миллионов дополнительных человек-лет жизни.

Цифры правду говорят?

Казалось бы, что может быть проще, чем – в наше «гаджетное» время – изучение влияния бега на здоровье? В эпоху, когда миллионы носят фитнес-браслеты, сбрасывающие данные на смартфоны, нужно лишь брать эту россыпь информации и черпать из нее. Но, как показывает пример выше, на деле все не так просто. Сами по себе, без качественного анализа с использованием машинного обучения, даже действительно большие данные «не взлетают» – вовсе не дают того результат, которого от них ожидают. Возможно, это одна из причин столь резкого роста спроса на специалистов по data science сегодня.
Ситуация со «смертельно опасным» бегом – не единичный пример. Люди регулярно сталкиваются с опасными – иной раз смертельно опасными – иллюзиями, порожденными некорректной работой с данными. Классический пример из недавней российской реальности – невероятно широко разошедшаяся статья с «Хабра», где за счет некорректной работы с не такими уж и большими данными был сделан вывод: коронавирус неопасен, не страшнее гриппа.
Исходя из вроде бы корректных цифр (но не будучи в состоянии их правильно осознать), регулярно ошибаются политики, врачи (даже среди них долго были те, кто не считал новую эпидемию опасной), экономисты и многие-многие другие. Очень похожая ситуация царит и в целом ряде других областей, еще ожидающих своего анализа на основе науки о данных — от атомной энергетики до медицины.
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2020.07.13 22:05 pothkan Koronawątek 13-19.7

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